Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Tsunami Tuesday Live Blog: The Run-Up

5:10 PM: Watching MSNBC's coverage. Less than an hour until Georgia closes.

Democratic Exit polls MSNBC:

Economy 45%, Iraq 29%, Healthcare 15%. Economy 91% Not Good.
Change 53%, Experience 22%, Cares 14%, Electable 9%.
Change voters: Obama 72%, Clinton 25%.
Commander-in-chief: Clinton 50%, Obama 35%.
Uniter: Obama 54%, Clinton 37%.

What that tells us is that Obama has 72% of 53% of the vote minimum- that's nearly forty percent of the total vote determined for Obama. That's a major advantage- and it bodes very well indeed for Obama's chances tonight.

5:14 PM: All afternoon people have been talking about the West Virginia deal, where John McCain's supporters went overwhelmingly for Mike Huckabee on the second ballot to give Huckabee, not Romney, the nod. The big question? What does Huckabee want? On a serious note, I think Huckabee would be satisfied if McCain made the Fair Tax part of his campaign platform. On a more silly note, perhaps Huckabee has dreams of becoming McCain's Secretary of Religosity...

5:15 PM: Clinton camp talking up early votes and how they will keep the outcomes inconclusive. Translated: we think we're going to get stomped, but we're hoping to squeak out a narrow win that we can call outdoing expectations. Of course Obama's playing the expectations game too, saying that keeping the margin within 100 delegates is a major victory. The difference is, with Obama it's the truth. Clinton was miles ahead: if she can't stay ahead, she's in dire trouble, especially since in January Obama outraised Clinton $32 million to $13.5 million.

5:29 PM: CNN Dem poll: Change 74, Experience 3, Cares 11. GOP: Romney and Huckabee shares values: McCain has the experience. Romney and Huckabee splitting the same vote? Good for McCain.

5:40 PM: Both CNN and MSNBC nattering on right now about how Rush Limbaugh is attacking McCain for not being conservative enough. Limbaugh doesn't want McCain to win because McCain won't support tough borders, small government, and conservative ideals. My question: Rush, if that was your criteria for the job, why the hell have you "carried water" for Dubya these seven years?

5:44 PM: By the way, greenpapers.com is an excellent source for Presidential election facts- including stuff on third party primaries and other minutiae. (Yes, minutiae. And they'll remain so until a third party forms that decides to act like a third party instead of an isolated purist little club.) I'm looking up the precise method Georgia uses to allocate delegates, so I can make an attempt to estimate delegates. 30 delegates statewide, the other 57 distributed quite unevenly among thirteen congressional districts. Forgive me if I don't go looking for twenty-odd congressional district maps (although in Alaska, North Dakota and Delaware those would be very simple maps indeed...)

5:51 PM: MSNBC GOP exit polls: Economy 40%, Immigration 22%, Iraq 20%, Terrorism 15%. Economy not good- 56%, Good 44%. Bush 64% positive, 36% negative; 71% approve of war in Iraq (remember, these are Republicans.) Important: Shares values 47%, Experience 24%, Says What He Believes 21%, Electable 7%. No indication of which voters share what values.

5:53 PM: Closing out this post and clearing decks for polls closing in Georgia. I think a bowl of cereal to munch on would be good...

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