The Next Day

Well, the exit polls didn't hold up after all.

Clinton ended up winning not with a 4% margin, but a 9% margin. She managed to hold most of the Philadelphia suburbs- I'd expected her to win Burks County handily, but other results were a little surprising.

More to the point, she won 75-25 in most of the rural counties around the state- numbers almost identical to her results in predominantly white areas of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. Anyone who wants to complain about James Carville's much-repeated quote about Pennsylvania being Pittsburgh in the west, Philadelphia in the east, and Alabama in the middle can just shut up right now, thank you.

No matter how much Obama likes having his "50-state contest" talking point, these results should be more than enough for him to write West Virginia off completely, and Kentucky nearly so. Clinton is going to win those by landslide margins- Kentucky by 60-40, West Virginia by almost 70-30.

Another point that bears noticing: beyond getting out the basic message, money does not matter in elections. Obama spent nearly three times as much as Clinton in Pennsylvania. Some people claim that this forced the Clintons to put more money than they wanted in there, but I doubt it; they had to win Pennsylvania, and really had to win by much more than the 9% they got. Obama's first strategy- to downplay Pennsylvania as Clinton country and a state where they would be happy with a good showing- was the right way to go. Dumping money in as he did over the past three weeks was a strategic blunder; it made him look weak for apparently trying and failing to score a knockout blow, and it means he has that much less money to spend on Indiana, a state with a legitimate chance for a knockout.

That said, although Obama underperformed in the state, Clinton only reached her expectations- she didn't surpass them. My prediction six weeks ago was for a delegate breakdown of Clinton 83, Obama 75; early projections at the Daily Kos suggest the final breakdown will be Clinton 84, Obama 74. That's a ten delegate net to Clinton... which Obama can make up by a simple 10% margin of victory in North Carolina in two weeks. Polls currently show him leading there by as much as TWENTY percentiles- which could lead to as much as a 69-46 margin there, or a net delegate pickup of 23.

So, what are my predictions for two weeks? Looking at poll trends, I'm going to call Indiana for Obama by only about 3% statewide- say 51% to 48%. I'm going to be a little conservative and call North Carolina at 57-43 for Obama as well, with Clinton winning most of her vote in the western mountain area. Breaking that down into actual delegate projections (thanks to the Green Papers for the details):

INDIANA

Statewide at-large: Obama 8, Clinton 8
Pledged PLEOs: Obama 5, Clinton 4
CD-1: Obama 4, Clinton 2
CD-2: Obama 3, Clinton 3
CD-3: Obama 2, Clinton 2
CD-4: Obama 1, Clinton 3
CD-5: Obama 2, Clinton 2
CD-6: Obama 2, Clinton 3
CD-7: Obama 4, Clinton 2
CD-8: Obama 3, Clinton 3
CD-9: Obama 2, Clinton 4
TOTAL: Obama 36, Clinton 36

So- a null result in Indiana.

NORTH CAROLINA

Statewide at-large: Obama 15, Clinton 11
Pledged PLEOs: Obama 7, Clinton 5
CD-1: Obama 4, Clinton 2
CD-2: Obama 4, Clinton 2
CD-3: Obama 2, Clinton 2
CD-4: Obama 6, Clinton 3
CD-5: Obama 1, Clinton 4
CD-6: Obama 2, Clinton 3
CD-7: Obama 4, Clinton 2
CD-8: Obama 2, Clinton 3
CD-9: Obama 2, Clinton 4
CD-10: Obama 1, Clinton 4
CD-11: Obama 2, Clinton 4
CD-12: Obama 5, Clinton 2
CD-13: Obama 4, Clinton 3
TOTAL: Obama 61, Clinton 54

That's a net of seven delegates for Obama- and that's planning for a disastrous loss to Clinton in the mountainous west of the state, plus a couple of borderline districts.

So, in two weeks Obama makes up most of the ground he lost today. Not to worry. (Much.)

And finally... remember my Magic Superdelegate Number? As of today's endorsement of Obama by Oklahoma governor Brad Henry, Obama's magic number is 89 superdelegates. 89 more superdelegates, and he slams the door on Hillary's ability to overturn his lead in the pledged delegate count- presuming, of course, that the remaining contests, plus Pennsylvania, come out with both candidates splitting the pledged delegates.

Oh, Clinton has her own magic superdelegate number: 238.

There are only 304 superdelegates total who are still apparently neutral or undeclared. 67 of those are either empty seats (state add-on delegates) or superdelegates whose terms of office expire before the convention in Denver (Hawaii's DNC positions and state chairman). That means Clinton needs every single remaining superdelegate that currently holds the position... plus one.

Or, in percentage terms: Obama needs 29% of the remaining superdelegates. Clinton needs 78%. (The difference is John Edwards' 18 remaining pledged delegates.)

Unless Obama's superdelegates begin to defect, Clinton really can't win... and it's Clinton, not Obama, who has had problems with superdelegate defections.

Clinton will still win Kentucky, West Virginia, and more than likely Puerto Rico. She has an even shot in Indiana- but that's all, and it's not enough.

But until she realizes and accepts that- and I doubt she ever will- she'll continue the contest, which is doing nothing but hurting both candidates for the November race.

(You notice, of course, that all the people who say the continuing contest is good for Democrats are conservative/Republican activists?)

Awaiting Pennsylvania Results

It's been three weeks since I've posted here- partly because I've been busy, but mostly because the Presidential campaigns have been full of shit- all of them, Obama's included- the past three weeks. Nothing about policy, nothing about character, everything about cheap shots and finger-pointing and evading questions. With that actively repelling me from the political scene, and nothing much appealing to me more locally to write about, and with a lot of other personal worries, I didn't feel like writing much.

Now the day has come, and as I type this the race is too close to call- that means exit polls were probably within 10% or less margin between the candidates. That's a bit surprising, all things considered. I'd have expected a blowout.

My main concern, all along, for Pennsylvania is summed up by this USA Today article, spotted by good old Andrew Sullivan at the Daily Dish.

The money quote:

The irony of today's Pennsylvania primary is that the historic race and gender confrontation between Obama and Clinton is being staged in one of the most reluctant states to elect a woman or African-American to major office. Until now, that has been the only way to win big in Pennsylvania — be male and pale.

I'd go farther and say that, outside of Philadelphia, being pale is much more important than being male.

The non-fannish Pennsylvanians I've met over the years have all been not merely conservative, but angrily, intolerantly conservative. I recently bemoaned the happy, smiling racism that pervades my part of east Texas, but in Pennsylvania rural areas- and in working-class white neighborhoods in the cities, too- the racism is not happy or smiling.

"But wait!" you shout. "Philadelphia is the City of Brotherly Love!" Yep- but it was also a city of very deep social divides almost from its founding.

"But all Pennsylvanians aren't like that!" Never said they were. Fans tend to be major exceptions- sci-fi fans, anime fans, fannish people in general tend to be more accepting people. But Pennsylvania is also the home of the Amish and of other isolationist groups. How many black Amish have you ever seen?

And look at the article I linked to above. Only four blacks elected to Congress from PA- ever. Only six women elected to Congress- ever. One woman to statewide office (the current Lt. Governor)- ever. No black statewide officers- ever. Racism and sexism alike still rule in Pennsylvania, but for Democrats sexism is weaker than racism.

"But those people are dying off!" Yes, they are. The racists and sexists are mostly older people- fifty years or older- throughout the nation. But Pennsylvania is a state with relatively few young people. Young people leave the state as soon as they can. Only Florida has an older population on average. The racists and sexists are still very much in control- as witness tonight's exit polls, which show 27% of today's voters over the age of 65.

Obama's not going to win the state. The only question is whether or not he keeps Clinton's win small- which just might happen. Obama erred in outspending Clinton 3-1 in Pennsylvania; he could have done just as well working at parity, and investing the difference in Indiana (which is a coin-flip at the moment) would have been a better shot. On the other hand, Clinton will be in debt by $10 million with only $8 million in cash-on-hand tomorrow. A simple win isn't enough for Clinton to survive. She needs the 10 percentile plus victory just to keep donors giving her money. A 20 percentile win is what she actually needed to cut into Obama's delegate lead significantly... and she did not do that.

The campaign staggers on another two weeks, while McCain continues to get a pass by the national media and the two Democratic candidates alike. Indiana becomes the true showdown state, a state where both campaigns are evenly matched... or would, if Clinton can find the money to compete.

And as I type this, the call comes in for Clinton. 1% of the vote in, with nothing out of Philadelphia, and she leads 60/40. Wait- 3% of the vote, 55/45. Must be a Philly precinct coming in there. In any case, she's held the state, despite all the money Obama threw in.

That doesn't say much about Obama.

It says everything in the world about the voters of rural Pennsylvania.

Now to sit back and see how the delegates break down.

EDIT: About half an hour after I posted the above...

I just looked at MSNBC's exit poll for PA.

By calculating the male-female breakdown of votes, I show the exit poll as predicting:

CLINTON - 51.8%
OBAMA - 47.8%

That's only a four percentile spread. That's damn close, if it holds. No wonder they held off on declaring a winner.

Even MSNBC, which has been as far in the tank for Obama as any news network, is blathering now about how disastrous a loss in Pennsylvania is for Obama. I disagree. If the 4% number holds up (actual results, with 20% of precincts in, 53-47 Clinton), Clinton will really, REALLY be hurting tomorrow morning...

Clinton: The First Defection

Today's news cycle is all about the apparent revival of Hillary Clinton's campaign. This revival is based on two things: first, her taking the gloves off and attacking Obama (again) for lacking substance and being unwilling to debate; second, because of new polls in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and two polls in Ohio (here and here) showing Clinton neck and neck with Obama in Wisconsin and up by very large margins indeed in the other two states.

First, it's no surprise that Clinton is going negative. Negative campaigning is the only tool in the Clinton kit that has ever worked for them. Positive campaigning cost Clinton his first re-election campaign as Arkansas governor; ever since then, both candidates have taken the low road early and often. Obama, however, has proven that he can rise above Clinton attack ads and speech talking points- indeed, he can use those attacks to win as he did in South Carolina and in a majority of Tsunami Tuesday states.

Second, the polls reveal nothing new except possibly in Wisconsin, where another poll showed Obama up by nine points only a couple of days ago. We know that the polls tend to understate Obama's support, especially among independents. Let's look at the Quinnipiac polls in Ohio and Pennsylvania- showing Clinton up 55 - 34 in the former, 52 - 36 in the latter... The poll, however, focused solely on self-declared Democrats- it did not include independents.

Most of the Democratic primaries and caucuses this year had an unprecedentedly high turnout of independents and aisle-crossing Republicans- about 25% of the total vote. Almost without exception these voters have gone two to one for Obama. Let's factor in those votes into the total, and we get an adjusted projection- Clinton still ahead, but by much less- of 50-42 in Ohio, 47-44 in Pennsylvania.

And that's before Obama campaigns in those states. His numbers always go up, and Clinton's down, in states where he campaigns personally.

So the reasons that Clinton was the big story in politics today- until Mitt Romney announced his endorsement of John McCain- are, all in all, pretty damn weak.

For the most part, though, they succeeded in drowning out the one genuinely interesting bit of news today, even more interesting than the Republican walking out of the House of Representatives just long enough to tell the press how tough they were on spying on American citizens and protecting telecom corporations from their own crimes... before walking right back in again.

Here it is: NJ Superdelegate Switches to Obama.

There we are: the first defection from Clinton's clutch of superdelegates.

The switch took a week: she first announced she was undecided on Feb. 8, blaming Bill Clinton's negative attacks on Barack Obama.

"I'm disappointed in a few things that were said a few weeks ago by President Clinton," she said. "I'm going to have to revisit what I'm going to do between now and when we vote."

. . .

Samuels, a member of the Democratic National Committee and the executive committee of the state NAACP, also said she was troubled by Hillary Clinton's comments that Martin Luther King's dream of racial equality was realized only when President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

That's the first one out the door on Clinton. If she doesn't stop Obama cold in Wisconsin, expect more to follow. More may follow anyway, if her current negative campaigning backfires the way her first batch did in South Carolina.