Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday Live Blogging: Georgia for Obama

6:00: Georgia projected for Obama based on exit polls. No surprise, hence no post. Republicans too close to call, three way contest.


6:02: On CNN, Wolf Blitzer is stuttering again. How long until his Gulf War mojo isn't enough to keep him that job?

6:05: GA Exit Poll: Black 52%, White 44%. Black vote 86-13 Obama. White Voters 54-43 Clinton- but that's a gain for Obama. From that I can calculate a rough outcome- calculator... Obama 44.72 + 18.92 = 63.64%, Clinton 6.76 + 23.76 = 30.52%, about 6% unknown. Let's give Clinton all of 'em, and it's still 64% to 36%.

6:10: Now to attack the delegate predictions. This will probably be wrong five delegates one way or another, but, presuming the proportions are identical all the way across the state... 19 statewide for Obama, 11 for Clinton; CD1 - 2-1; CD2 - 3-2; CD3 - 3-1; CD4 - 4-2; CD5 - 4-3; CD6 - 2-1; CD7 - 3-1; CD8 - 3-1; CD9 - 2-1; CD10 - 3-1; CD11 - 2-1; CD12 - 3-2; CD13 - 4-2. Total: 57 Obama, 30 Clinton- two more than my poll-delegate system predicted.

6:16: You see the above? Don't count on me doing that again tonight! ESPECIALLY don't count on it for New York or California.

6:17: Current running total on the Democrat side- pre-Tuesday states plus Georgia: I currently project Obama 120, Clinton 78.

6:20: CNN exit polls: Obama got 89% of the black vote, 39% of the white vote. Slight discrepancy, but I think my numbers stand.

6:27: Just checked back to my poll lists: my 64% Obama estimate almost perfectly matches the final Zogby poll in Georgia. A bit early, but I think that's a hint that Zogby is on the money all around, too... which means California, New Jersey and Massachusetts are most definitely in play.

6:30: FOX News is showing incorrect results for West Virginia.

Just looking at MSNBC exit polls for Georgia: Clinton holds a 2:1 gap over Obama among white women, with a marginal advantage in white men. This is NOT good for Obama's chances in Alabama, where the black vote is much smaller. In half an hour we'll have some idea of whether or not this gap holds up in non-Confederate states.

6:38: Even with cereal, my tolerance period of Lou Dobbs is three minutes. Blech.

Nothing much but blather happening now, so close this post and prepare for the huge 8 PM EST closing...

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