Obama's Job Bomb

So: in this post I'm going to connect two recent posts: the review of Rick Perry's handout to contributors TEF money-for-jobs program, and Obama's killing the return to the moon and American spaceflight in the new budget.

The link for them is the $100 billion in Obama's proposed 2011 budget designated as his "jobs program." One link is obvious, but the other not so much so- but be patient, I'll get there.

So, we established in the Rick Perry piece that handing free money to employers and trusting that they'll create the jobs they promise just plain doesn't work. So, what's Barack Obama's approach?

Hand free money to employers and trust that they'll create jobs.

Leaving aside the simple fact that it doesn't work and has never worked, Richard Posner of the Atlantic spots the main flaw at once:

The Keynesian theory of stimulus is that if private demand for goods and services falls substantially below the economy's productive capacity, government can replace the shortfall in demand by increasing its own demand. It can buy roads and airports and military equipment with borrowed money...

The job-stimulus plan is not aimed at increasing demand, and therefore is unlikely to increase employment. For think: if a company is producing 1,000 widgets a year with a work force of 30, and it adds a 31st employee and thereby earns a $5,000 tax credit, the company's total costs will have risen by the wages and benefits that he pays the new employee minus the $5,000. But his sales will not have risen. Participating in the job-subsidy program will actually reduce his profits (revenue minus cost).

So... $30 billion... which won't increase the demand for jobs one iota, and which will almost certainly go into the pockets of corporations whose lawyers and accountants are best at gaming the system. This is one hundred percent wasted money.

And as Derek Thompson reports, we tried this before- under Gerald Ford:

After the 1973-5 recession the New Jobs Tax Credit gave firms a tax break if they increased total employment by at least two percent. The policy was too complex for many firms to apply, and later studies struggled to agree that the tax credit boosted jobs by a significant number. A Department of Labor report ultimately concluded that it was impossible to observe what hiring would have been done without the credit.

Really, I knew Obama was imitating Ford by effectively pardoning his predecessor for all their many and egregious sins... but isn't this carrying imitation too far?

But the aspect of all this that truly intrigues me is this: in order to fully fund Projects Constellation, Orion and Ares for return to the moon by 2020, NASA requested a mere $3 billion per year above current budget for the next ten years.

That adds up to... oh... $30 billion.

And that money, I might remind you, WOULD create a demand for jobs- people building the rockets and spacecraft, people designing the systems involved, people overseeing the launches and spaceflights and tests, and all the knock-ons that would involve.

(Oh, wait- Obama is adding $6 billion, spaced out over five years, to NASA's budget, mostly to extend the space station's life to 2020 and to encourage private spaceflight to take over from NASA. So actually, fully funding NASA would be CHEAPER than Obama's $5000/head new-hire tax credit... and would almost certainly create and protect more actual jobs.)

Yet Another Broken Campaign Promise...

... but, if you looked at Obama's record prior to 2008, you could see this coming a long way off.

Obama to "put the brakes" on moon, Mars missions

President Barack Obama is essentially grounding efforts to return astronauts to the moon and instead is sending NASA in new directions with roughly $6 billion more, said officials familiar with the plans.

A White House official confirmed Thursday that when next week's budget is proposed, NASA will get an additional $5.9 billion over five years, as first reported in Florida newspapers. Some of that money would extend the life of the International Space Station to 2020. It also would be used to entice companies to build private spacecraft to ferry astronauts to the space station after the space shuttle retires, said the official who was not authorized to speak by name.

The money in the president's budget is not enough to follow through with NASA's Constellation moon landing plan initiated by President George W. Bush. An aide to an elected official who was told of Obama's plans, but who asked that his name not be used because of the sensitivity of the discussions, said Obama is effectively ending the return-to-the-moon effort, something that has already cost $9.1 billion.

So: we're going to entrust our human spaceflight to private companies who, to date, have yet to even achieve orbital flight. We're going to extend the life of a station that does nothing aside from serve as a learning experience for future space construction- only, well, there isn't going to BE any future space construction.

And the moon landing and permanent base- the test platform utterly, utterly necessary to prepare for a Mars manned mission and landing- cancelled for lack of funds.

Space policy scholar John Logsdon, who was on an Obama space campaign advisory committee and has served on NASA advisory panels, said Obama is adopting the preferred option of a White House-appointed outside panel of experts last year. That concept includes reliance on a commercial spaceship, a space station that functions for five more years than planned, and a “flexible path” for human space exploration. That might mean trips to a nearby asteroid, a Martian moon or a brief visit to the moon, instead of the Bush plan for a moon base by the end of the decade.

“What kills the moon mission is the decision to extend the space station to 2020,” Logsdon said. That means the Bush goal of “moon by 2020 is dead. We can't afford using the station for five more years and going to the moon.”

While the Constellation program “is dead, exploration is not dead and that's really important,” Logsdon said.

Um, actually, exploration IS dead. You've just killed it. Without Ares- which is also getting the axe- and without Orion, there is no heavy lift vehicle on Earth which has a hope in hell of rendezvous with, much less landing on, a near-Earth asteroid. What's more, attempting a human landing on an asteroid is far, FAR more dangerous than landing on the Moon or Mars. It means a longer trip to a body with far less gravity, where an injudicious movement on the part of an astronaut could- and likely would- send that astronaut off into space, never to be recovered.

Here's a bit of actual honesty:

If Obama does cancel the Constellation program, it “leaves NASA and the nation with no program, no plan and no commitment to any human spaceflight program beyond that of today,” said former NASA Administrator Michael Griffin in a statement.

He said this would be recommending “that the nation abandon its leadership on the space frontier,” Griffin said.

. . .

And a recent report by NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel warned NASA not pursue unproven technology and abandon the Ares I rocket — the first rocket in the Bush moon program and one based on the Apollo design.

The report called such a path “unwise and probably not cost-effective.”

But the Obama administration official said the Bush program was so underfunded that it wouldn't get astronauts to the moon until 2028 or 2030.

So much for Obama "not being a quitter." Now those of us who believe in human spaceflight sooner rather than later have to hope that Congress successfully rejects this portion of Obama's proposed budget.

It took fifty years, but it looks like Jerome Wiesner has finally won.

Russia: Sex in Space Inevitable.

There is nothing I could possibly add to improve this story.

Unexpected Cull Day

This morning, before driving my grandmother to doctor and shopping, I had decided to do today's post on a certain Virginian Congressman who isn't the least bit ashamed of his Islamophobia.

While out, I listened to Bush's speech today, heard him change positions on the minimum wage- he now supports it, provided tax breaks for "small business" are included- and decided to do it on that instead.

It took hours to find any mention of the minimum wage waffle online after I got home, and by the time I did, Lou "Everything Not American is Evil" Dobbs's stand-in had done a bit on it... poisoning the well, you might say.

I tried anyway, only to be locked out of this blog for over an hour. By the time I regained access, I was too tired to contemplate a long article. That means it's time for a Cull Day and a bunch of short items...

Some Opposed to Expanding Jails

Although I'm by no means a Democrat, I have to hand it to John Whitmire: sometimes a blind pig will find an acorn. Over half the people in our jails across the nation are in there for simple drug possession- not even possession with intent to distribute, just drug possession. About 3% of Americans are behind bars- the world's highest proportion, beyond even Russia and China. Prison should not be a growth industry- and our law enforcement resources would be better spent on burglary, murder, rape, etc.

E. Coli Scare Causes Doubt in Federal Food Controls

Believe it or not, there's a solution to bacterial contamination that also serves to extend the shelf life of food: irradiation. Unfortunately, paranoid "frankenfood" protesters have effectively kept it off the market... despite the fact that it is approved by the FDA. It doesn't leave residual radiation or cause mutations- it just kills bacteria. Unfortunately, the Luddites would rather have us continue using visual inspections... as if you can see a bacterium.

The Consequences of Milk Socialism

Michael Hampton tends to be much more anarchist than I'd like, which is why I prefer to go to primary sources whenever I see anything of interest on Homeland Stupidity. This article is an example of why I read it every day, though. This is a classic case of government working to squash competition. Instead of letting a small supplier provide cheaper milk, the government is forcing him to pay the big companies a huge subsidy. This is bad for everyone involved... except the big dairy corporations, that is.

Saudis to Back Sunni Militias if US Leaves Iraq

... and why was this news? Oh, right, because we only deduced that before. Now we have proof.

The problem is, the Saudis will intervene in Iraq when we leave no matter how long we wait. The Saudi royal government has backed extremist Sunni religious factions since the founding of their kingdom in the wake of World War I. They'll deny any official involvement, but most of the money behind al-Qaida was Saudi, and it's highly probable a lot of Saudi money is already getting funneled to the insurgency. Know the truly sad thing? The Saudis are our allies...

Democrats Promise Greater Oversight on War

... well, anything is greater than nothing, which is what BOTH Democrats AND Republicans have done since September 2002, when Bush first declared his intent. Unfortunately, with Pelosi still saying that impeachment is permanently off the table, I don't see the point of oversight NOW...


White House Warns Against Threats to Space Assets

Now, I personally believe weaponizing space is inevitable- and, considering threats like China's infant space program and asteroid collision, desirable. Unfortunately, the fact that Bush is the one calling for it will probably discredit the idea for the next generation.

Kevorkian Paroled

Kevorkian, in poor health, says he'll never do it again... but he's said it before. In any case, people should be free to commit suicide, and so long as the final act to suicide is done only at the hand of the victim, doctors should be free to assist if their own morals permit it. This isn't euthenasia, not by my definition anyway. Kevorkian may be dying himself, but his issue lives on. (Side note: I have NO idea what label to add to the list for this item...)

3 Indicted in Fraternity Hazing Death

Read that, then read this: Banned Frat Keeps On Partying... and now you will understand my single, three-word comment on this story:

DEATH PENALTY NOW.

The most recent development in a very rare thing indeed: US soldiers being called to account for crimes such as rape and murder. Did anyone need more proof that winning "hearts and minds" cannot be done by soldiers of an army of occupation?

And that's not even three days' worth of unused stories. I kept a couple to go with several links like them for future posts. There's a LOT I could talk about if I could spare time...