The Breakdown of LP Convention Voting Shifts (or my best guess)

Well, I'll be out of town for the Puerto Rico primaries and the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting, so I won't be doing timely blogging on that.

Instead, thanks to the Green Papers, I can actually do a post-mortem on the Libertarian Presidential nomination fight- and see whose supporters went to who, more or less.

There will, of course, be inaccuracies- a truly accurate judging would require the cooperation of 638 delegates who I can't afford to look up (and many of whom have good reason not to talk to me). This is as close to accurate as you can get when all you have to work with is the numbers.

Right- on to the crunching. My methodology is this: whenever a candidate was eliminated between ballots, look at the states where that candidate had votes, and see how the votes changed from ballot to ballot on a state-by-state basis.

The first problem is, of course, the first ballot. More than one candidate was dropped after the first ballot- Jingozian, Smith, and the write-ins (including Imperato, who got Arkansas' sole delegate on the first ballot. WHY??). Since Smith was the most radical anarchist of the candidates who got nomination speeches, I'm going to presume her vote went to Ruwart if I can't track it directly otherwise.

OK, here we go...

FIRST BALLOT RESULTS: Barr 153, Ruwart 152, Root 123, Gravel 71, Phillies 49, Kubby 41, Jingozian 23, Smith 6, Ron Paul (write-in) 6, Penn Gillette (write-in) 3, Daniel Imperato (write-in) 1, William Keohler (write-in) 1.

SWINGS FROM FIRST TO SECOND BALLOT:

ARIZONA: 1 from Phillies to Kubby
ARKANSAS: 1 from Imperato to Phillies
CALIFORNIA: Barr gains 4, Root 3, Ron Paul 1; Kubby loses 3, Phillies loses 5. Presuming 1 Kubby -> Paul, 3 Phillies -> Root, 2 each Kubby and Phillies -> Barr.
COLORADO: 2 from Jingozian to Kubby, 1 from RP to Ruwart, 1 from Smith to Ruwart, 2 from Ron Paul to Root.
CONNECTICUT: 1 from Kubby to Barr, 1 from Kubby to Root.
DELAWARE: 1 from Ron Paul to Root.
FLORIDA: 1 from Gravel to Barr; 1 from Phillies to Barr; 1 from Ruwart to Barr
IDAHO: 1 from Jingozian to Root; 1 from Ruwart to Root
ILLINOIS: 2 from Jingozian to Root; 2 previously not voting to Root
INDIANA: 1 from Phillies to Barr; 2 from Jingozian to Root
KANSAS: 1 from Jingozian to Root
LOUISIANA: 1 from Smith to Steven Colbert, 1 from Root to Gravel, 1 previously unvoted to Gravel
MAINE: 1 from Ron Paul to Ruwart
MARYLAND: 1 from Kubby to Ruwart, 2 from Phillies to Gravel, 1 from Phillies to Ruwart
MICHIGAN: 1 from Kubby to Ruwart, 1 from Jingozian to Root, 1 from Gravel to Barr
MINNESOTA: 1 from Smith to Ruwart, 1 from Root to Gravel
MISSISSIPPI: 1 from Root to Ruwart
MISSOURI: 2 from Jingozian to Root, 2 from Kubby to Barr, 1 from Ruwart to Barr
MONTANA: 1 from Phillies to Kubby
NEBRASKA: 1 from Ruwart to Barr
NEVADA: 1 from Smith to Ruwart
NEW HAMPSHIRE: 1 from NOTA to Root
NEW MEXICO: 1 from Keohler to Phillies, 1 from Smith to Ruwart. 1 from Ruwart to Root, 1 from Kubby to Root
NEW YORK: 1 from Jingozian to Root, 1 from Root to Ruwart, 1 from Root to Kubby
OKLAHOMA: 2 from Kubby to Root, 1 from Kubby to Gravel
OREGON: 5 from Jingozian to Barr, 2 from Jingozian to Gravel, 1 from Jingozian to Phillies, 1 from Smith to Ruwart
PENNSYLVANIA: 3 from Penn Gillette to Bob Barr, 1 from Jingozian to Barr, 2 from Phillies to Root, 1 from Phillies to Ruwart
TENNESSEE: 1 from Phillies to Ruwart, 1 from Kubby to Ron Paul
TEXAS: 2 from Gravel to Barr, 1 from Kubby to Barr, 1 from Phillies to Barr, 1 from Root to Barr
UTAH: 1 from Gravel to Barr, 1 from Phillies to Kubby, 1 from Phillies to Ruwart
VIRGINIA: 1 from Jingozian to Gravel
WASHINGTON: 1 from Kubby to Ruwart, 2 from Root to Barr, 1 from Gravel to Barr
WISCONSIN: 1 from Gravel to Ruwart
WYOMING: 1 from Ruwart to Barr

TOTALS (ignoring write-ins like Ron Paul, so no the numbers won't precisely match):

SMITH- 5 to Ruwart, 1 to Steven Colbert (and later to Root)
JINGOZIAN- 10 to Root, 6 to Barr, 2 to Gravel, 2 to Kubby, 1 to Barr, 1 to Phillies, 1 dropped out

Also, in shifting:

KUBBY- lost 6 to Barr, 3 to Root, 3 to Ruwart, 1 to Gravel; gained 3 from Phillies and 1 from Root
PHILLIES- lost 5 to Root, 5 to Barr, 4 to Ruwart, 3 to Kubby, 2 to Gravel
GRAVEL- lost 6 to Barr, 1 to Ruwart; gained 3 from Jingozian, 2 from Phillies, 2 from Root, 1 from Kubby.
ROOT- lost 2 each to Gravel, Ruwart and Barr, and 1 to Kubby; gained 10 from Jingozian, 5 from Phillies, 3 from Kubby and 2 from Ruwart

And the two frontrunners? Ruwart lost 4 to Barr; no Barr voters, apparently, switched to Ruwart on the second ballot.

Now on to the third ballot, after Kubby was eliminated:

ALABAMA - 1 from Kubby to Ruwart
ARIZONA - 4 from Kubby to Ruwart, 1 from Root to Barr
ARKANSAS - 1 from Phillies to Ruwart
CALIFORNIA - 3 Kubby not voting, 1 from Gravel to Ruwart, 1 from Phillies to Ruwart
COLORADO - 4 from Kubby to Root, 1 from Phillies to Barr
FLORIDA - 1 from Barr to NOTA
HAWAII - 1 from Kubby to Ruwart
IDAHO - 2 from Kubby to Ruwart
ILLINOIS - 2 from Kubby to Ruwart, 2 from Root to Barr, 1 Root not voting
LOUISIANA - 1 from Colbert to Root
MARYLAND - 1 from Phillies to Gravel, 1 from Phillies to Ruwart
MICHIGAN - 1 Barr not voting
MINNESOTA - 1 from Gravel to Root
MISSOURI - 1 from Kubby to Ruwart, 1 from Barr to Root
MONTANA - 1 from Kubby to Root, 1 from Kubby to Ruwart
NEVADA - 1 from Kubby to Ruwart
NEW HAMPSHIRE - 1 from Kubby to Gravel, 1 from Kubby to Ruwart
NEW MEXICO - 1 from Kubby to Ruwart
NEW YORK - 1 from Kubby to Gravel, 1 from Kubby to Ruwart
OREGON - 1 from Kubby to Phillies
PENNSYLVANIA - 2 from Kubby to Ruwart, 2 from Kubby to Root, 1 from Kubby to Gravel
SOUTH CAROLINA - 1 previously not voted to Gravel
TENNESSEE - 1 from Barr to Root, 1 from Ron Paul to Ruwart
TEXAS - 1 from Kubby to Ruwart, 1 from Barr to Ruwart, 1 from Barr to Root, 1 from Barr to Gravel, 1 previously not voting for Gravel
UTAH - 1 from Jesse Ventura to Bob Barr, 1 from Kubby to Ruwart
WEST VIRGINIA - 1 from Kubby to Gravel

TOTALS

KUBBY - 20 to Ruwart, 7 to Root, 4 to Gravel, 3 not voting, 1 to Phillies
PHILLIES - 2 to Ruwart, 1 to barr, 1 to Gravel

Gravel lost one each to Ruwart and Root. Root lost three to Barr... and gained three from Barr in other states. Barr lost one vote each to Ruwart, NOTA, and to absentee. Ruwart lost nothing.

Ballot 4 (Phillies out):

ARIZONA - 1 from Gravel to Root
CALIFORNIA - 4 from Phillies to Ruwart, 2 from Gravel to Ruwart, 1 from Gravel to Root, 1 from Ron Paul to Ruwart
COLORADO - 1 from Phillies to Ruwart, 1 from Root to Barr
CONNECTICUT - 1 from Barr to Gravel; 1 from Root to Gravel; 1 from Ruwart to Gravel
FLORIDA - 1 from not voting (from Barr, from Ruwart) to Ruwart; 1 from Barr to Ruwart; 1 from Phillies to Ruwart; 1 from Root to Ruwart
ILLINOIS - 1 from Phillies to Gravel; 1 not voting (from Root) to Root
INDIANA - 1 from Phillies to Barr; 1 from Phillies to Gravel
IOWA - 2 from Phillies to Barr; 1 from Phillies to Gravel
KANSAS - 1 from Root to Barr
MARYLAND - 1 from Ruwart to Gravel
MASSACHUSETTS - 4 from Phillies to Ruwart, 1 from Phillies to Root, 1 from Phillies to NOTA
MICHIGAN - 1 from Ruwart to Barr
MINNESOTA - 1 from Phillies to Gravel, 1 from Root to Barr
MISSISSIPPI - 1 from Ruwart to Barr
MISSOURI - 2 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart
MONTANA - 1 from Phillies to Root
NEW HAMPSHIRE - 2 from Phillies to Root, 1 from Phillies to Ruwart
NEW MEXICO - 1 from Phillies to Root, 1 from Ruwart to NOTA
NEW YORK - 1 from Gravel to Root, 1 from Gravel to Ruwart
OREGON - 1 from Phillies to Barr, 1 from Phillies to Gravel
PENNSYLVANIA - 1 from Phillies to Root, 2 from Gravel to Barr
RHODE ISLAND - 2 from Phillies to Barr
SOUTH CAROLINA - 1 from Gravel to Barr
TENNESSEE - 1 from Root to Barr
TEXAS - 1 from Gravel to Barr
UTAH - 1 from Barr to Root
VIRGINIA - 1 from Gravel to Barr
WASHINGTON - 2 from Phillies to Ruwart
WYOMING - 1 from Gravel to Root

TOTALS

PHILLIES - 13 to Ruwart, 8 to Root, 5 to Gravel, 4 to Barr, 1 NOTA (presumably Phillies himself, a member of the Mass. delegation)

In addition to gaining 5 from Phillies, Gravel gained 2 from Ruwart and one each from Barr and Root, mostly from unifying the Connecticut delegation; unfortunately he lost 5 to Barr, 4 to Root and 3 to Ruwart. Root lost 6 to Barr, 2 to Ruwart and 1 to Gravel (but gaining 4 from Gravel and 8 from Phillies). Ruwart had 2 defect to Barr, who lost 1 back to Ruwart.

Confused yet? Don't worry, it should get simpler soon...

Ballot 5 (Gravel out):

ALABAMA - 1 Gravel not voting
ARIZONA - 1 from Gravel to Barr
CALIFORNIA - 1 from Root to Barr, 1 from Gravel to Barr, 2 from Gravel to Ruwart, 2 from Gravel not voting
COLORADO - 2 from Gravel to Root, 1 from Barr to Root
CONNECTICUT - 5 from Gravel to Root
FLORIDA - 1 from Gravel to Root, 1 from Ruwart (to Barr to NV to Ruwart) to Barr
IDAHO - 1 Gravel not voting, 1 from Ruwart to Barr
ILLINOIS - 1 from Gravel to Barr, 1 from Gravel to Root
INDIANA - 4 from Gravel to Ruwart, 3 from Gravel to Root, 1 Gravel not voting
IOWA - 2 from Gravel to Barr
LOUISIANA - 1 from Gravel to Root, 2 from Gravel to NOTA
MICHIGAN - 2 from Gravel to Ruwart
MINNESOTA - 1 from Gravel to Barr, 1 from Root to Barr
MISSOURI - 2 from Ruwart to Root, 1 from Gravel to Barr
MONTANA - 1 from Root to Ruwart
NEBRASKA - 1 Barr not voted
NEVADA - 6 from Gravel to Ruwart
NEW HAMPSHIRE - 2 from Root to Ruwart
NEW MEXICO - 1 NOTA to Root
NEW YORK - 1 from Gravel to Barr, 1 from Gravel to Root, 1 Gravel not voted
NORTH DAKOTA - 1 from Gravel to Ruwart
OKLAHOMA - 2 from Root to Barr
OREGON - 1 from Gravel to Barr, 6 from Gravel to Ruwart
PENNSYLVANIA - 1 from Gravel to Root, 1 from Gravel to Ruwart, 3 from Gravel to NOTA, 1 Gravel not voted
SOUTH CAROLINA - 2 from Gravel to Barr, 1 from Gravel to Root
TEXAS - 3 from Gravel to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart
VIRGINIA - 1 from Gravel to Root
WASHINGTON - 3 from Gravel to Ruwart
WEST VIRGINIA - 1 from Gravel to Ruwart

TOTALS

GRAVEL - 24 to Ruwart, 18 to Root, 14 to Barr, 11 to NOTA/no vote

(Note: the first serious move of a candidate's supporters to opt out or reject everyone.)

Root lost four to Barr and five to Ruwart in some states, but picked one back from each in others. Two Ruwart voters (including what looks like a really indecisive Florida delegate) flipped to Barr.

Finally, with Root out, the last ballot:

ALABAMA - 1 not voted (formerly Gravel) to Ruwart
ALASKA - 2 from Root to Barr
ARIZONA - 1 from Root to Barr
CALIFORNIA - 35 from Root to Barr, 6 from Root to Ruwart
COLORADO - 10 from Root to Ruwart, 6 from Root to NOTA
CONNECTICUT - 1 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart, 3 from Root to NOTA
DELAWARE - 1 from Root to Barr
FLORIDA - 1 from Root to Barr, 1 from Barr (back, again) to Ruwart
IDAHO - 2 from Root to Ruwart, 1 from Root to NOTA
ILLINOIS - 3 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart
INDIANA - 4 Root to Barr, 5 Root to Ruwart, 1 not voting (Gravel) to Ruwart
IOWA - 1 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart
KANSAS - 2 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart
KENTUCKY - 3 from Root to Barr
LOUISIANA - 3 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to NOTA
MAINE - 1 from Root to Barr
MARYLAND - 1 from Root to Barr
MASSACHUSETTS - 1 from Root to Ruwart, 1 from NOTA to Ruwart
MICHIGAN - 3 from Root to Barr, 2 from Root to Ruwart, 1 from Root to NOTA
MINNESOTA - 1 from Barr to Ruwart
MISSOURI - 4 from Root to Barr, 2 from Root to Ruwart
MONTANA - 1 from Root to Barr
NEBRASKA - 1 not voting to NOTA
NEW HAMPSHIRE - 1 from Root to Barr, 1 Root not voted
NEW JERSEY - 11 from Root to Barr
NEW MEXICO - 2 from Root to Barr, 3 from Root to NOTA
NEW YORK - 6 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart
OHIO - 5 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart, 1 from Root to NOTA
OREGON - 1 Root not voted
PENNSYLVANIA - 3 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart, 1 from NOTA to Ruwart
SOUTH CAROLINA - 1 from Root to Barr, 1 Root not voted
SOUTH DAKOTA - 3 from Root to Barr
TENNESSEE - 1 from Root to Barr
TEXAS - 5 from Root to Ruwart
UTAH - 1 from Root to Barr
VIRGINIA - 1 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to NOTA
WASHINGTON - 1 from Root to Barr
WYOMING - 1 from Ruwart to NOTA

TOTALS

ROOT - 103 to Barr, 33 to Ruwart

Also, two former Gravel voters switch to Ruwart, and two Barr voters went to Ruwart.

So, what was the total swing in support, from beginning to end?

SMITH - 5 to Ruwart, 1 to Root
JINGOZIAN- 10 to Root, 6 to Barr, 2 to Gravel, 2 to Kubby, 1 to Barr, 1 to Phillies, 1 dropped out
KUBBY - 23 to Ruwart, 9 to Root, 6 to Barr, 5 to Gravel, 1 to Phillies
PHILLIES - 17 to Ruwart, 13 to Root, 9 to Barr, 7 to Gravel
GRAVEL - 29 to Ruwart, 25 to Barr, 19 to Root
ROOT - 126 to Barr, 39 to Ruwart
RUWART - 4 to Barr

So, conclusions?

(1) We knew Georgia was vital for Barr- 33 for Barr, 2 for Ruwart on every ballot. Now we have to add in California. Take away those two states, and Ruwart would have won the nomination.

(2) There may or may not be a direct connection, but the number of delegates who voted for someone else before voting for Root is about the same as the number of former Root voters who voted for Ruwart and NOTA combined. My view is that virtually all of the first-ballot Root voters ended up going over to Barr and staying there over the course of the voting. Someone with more time on their hands can feel free to take the above guesses and verify or refute that.

(3) The only two candidates with no significant defection problems were the two frontrunners- Barr and Ruwart. Many of the other candidates' early supporters began looking for second choices as soon as it became clear their first choice wasn't going to win- even if their man wasn't out yet. (Man- because Christine Smith was the first out, and Ruwart the last.) And of the two frontrunners, Barr suffered four defections to Ruwart's eight (or, if my guess about there being one really indecisive Florida delegate is right, two Barr defections to Ruwart's six.)

(4) I badly misjudged Phillies supporters- not knowing just how strongly the Phillies people resented Barr's past record of persecuting pagans. They ended up supporting Ruwart over Barr by quite a bit. Likewise, Gravel's decision not to endorse made my prediction that his people would go for Barr very wrong. I was only right about Kubby's group following him to Ruwart and Root's following him to Barr.

But that's academic now, in more ways than one- I'm voting Obama in November, barring a major stumble on his part, and Barr is the 2008 LP nominee no matter which particular people voted for whoever else. It just has interest to me as a horse race- in the same way Dems and Repubs fascinate me in most of their races.

LP Nomination Live-Blogging

12:26- Just about prepared, as Jingozian's nomination speech time is running; only Gravel to go after him. Eight candidates made the cut.

The first ballot begins with New Hampshire- I've got my spreadsheet ready to give totals and percentages. I just hope I can keep up with the speakers...

12:29 PM: By the way, the rules are these: after every round of voting, the single lowest candidate- plus any candidates that poll less than 5% of the delegates- will be eliminated from consideration. NOTA is always in consideration- the LP can, indeed, choose to nominate nobody for President. My prediction is that Ruwart will take an early lead, but the longer the voting goes on, the more the voting will favor Bob Barr.

Incidentally, there is one noteworthy item from the nominating speeches: in his nominating speech, Bob Barr finally outright apologized for his errors while in office, in particular the Defense of Marriage Act. He hasn't apologized for being anti-pagan that I know of, but he's admitted he was wrong about the drug war and about gay marriage. My view is that he should have done this long, long before, or else waited until 2012 to run... but we'll see how it works out for him.

12:34 PM: HOLY SHIT. Jingozian swings right from his own nominating speech to be the first person to speak on behalf of MIKE GRAVEL. As he says, it's got to be an all-time first in Presidential politics. (It also shows the weakness of BOTH Jingozian and Gravel.)

12:42 PM: Gravel himself still manages to combined boredom and nuttiness in a single package. You'd think that'd be impossible, wouldn't you?

12:49 PM: FINALLY. Gravel's done- bring on the votes.

12:50 PM: The Barr people parade in front of the delegates. Massive booing. Dumb stunt. The chair calls the credentials committee report- total delegates 652. (It was near 900 in 2004.)

12:55 PM: Here we go... I'd intended to list the delegates per state, but I think one state didn't have anybody, which means my transcription got messed up along the line somewhere. California has 106 delegates; second is Texas with 37. No other state has more than 30. The magic number to nominate is 327.

12:58 PM: My error- Georgia has 35. Looks like the only no-delegate state is North Dakota.

1:01 PM: Dave Weigel of Reason is on C-SPAN while the balloting goes on. There needs to be a rules change- states vote in the order that their ballots are ready, to save time. Especially on the first ballot, with all the state-pride speeches.

1:06 PM: And Colorado has 30. Oops again- and that one should have been obvious, since this is Denver after all...

1:09 PM: While we're waiting- Delaware, Hawaii and Vermont are the one-delegate states.

1:15 PM: Incidentally, anyone reading this who's an LP person- the one word I'd use to describe the delegates, as a group, is white. Outreach to minorities is a must, and quite frankly you're not going to be successful there until and unless you learn to listen instead of preach...

1:18 PM: The C-SPAN cameras walked past a couple of people- presumably a Ruwart activist and a delegate- discussing a Barr-Ruwart ticket. The Ruwart person made it clear that she would not be Barr's running mate- too many differences, he said. One has to wonder about party unity, no matter how this comes out...

1:22 PM: Hm- they're counting the written ballots before any spoken balloting. Are they even going to DO by-state speeches? Did I waste my time making my spreadsheets? If they do dispense with speeches, it'll be that rare thing- a sensible LP procedure...

1:24 PM: No- there will still be by-state announcements.

1:27 PM: Gravel camp caught on C-SPAN cameras; they're predicting Ruwart and Barr, in that order, on the first ballot, with Gravel only marginally ahead of Phillies. One minute warning.

1:34 PM: Beginning with New Hampshire- bloviation ahoy. SHUT UP AND PRODUCE RESULTS, DAMMIT.

1:36 PM: The chair doesn't know alphabetical order.

1:39 PM: Early results don't look good for Bob Barr- with four states in he's tied for a distant third with Gravel.

1:41 PM: Bearing in mind that the states do NOT vote in unison, and there's a lot of scattershot votes... states won: NH - Ruwart/Phillies split; NJ - Root; NM - Ruwart; NY - Root; NC - Ruwart; OH - Root; OK - Barr/Kubby split; OR - Jingozian; PA - Gravel; RI - Phillies; SC - Barr; SD - Root; TN - Ruwart; TX - Ruwart; Utah - 3 way split; VT - Ruwart; VA - Barr; WA - Gravel.

1:52 PM: More states won- WY - 3-way split; AL -Barr; AK - Root (no votes for Gravel); AZ - Ruwart; AR - Daniel Imperato (!!!).

1:57 PM: Georgia comes in big for Bob Barr- 33 of 35 delegates. Other states won: CA, CT for Root; DE - Ron Paul(!); DC, FL - Barr; HI, ID - Kubby; IL - Ruwart.

2:01 PM: There will be a second ballot- not enough votes outstanding to push any candidate over the top.

2:04 PM: Other states won: IN - Root; IA - Phillies; KS - Barr; KY - Root; LA - Root; ME - 4-way split; MD - Phillies; MA - Phillies; MI - Ruwart; MN - Root/Barr split; MS - Ruwart; MO - Barr; MT - Phillies; NE - Ruwart; NV -Gravel (no Root votes).

BARR 153, Ruwart 152, Root 123, Gravel 71, Phillies 49, Kubby 40, Jingozian 23, Smith 6, NOTA 2; write-ins Ron Paul 6, Penn Jillette 3, William Kohler 1, Daniel Imperato 1.

Jingozian and Smith are gone. Smith's votes, I predict, go to Ruwart; Jingozian's to Gravel; the others may go every which way. Also expect some drift away from Root, Gravel and Phillies.

2:17 PM: Jingozian endorses Gravel. No surprise, especially after he put Gravel's name in nomination. Condition: he wants the VP slot. Smith endorses (who cares? She got six votes!) anybody but Bob Barr... she has the hate on... she REALLY has the hate on... boos louder than cheers, thankfully.

2:21 PM: Smith is now talking to the press basically saying that Bob Barr is no Libertarian, and the party will break if Barr gets nominated. But, of course, she welcomes all people into the Libertarian Party... provided they were never prosecutors, or Republicans.

On the totals- the LP official total shows Kubby with 41, not 40; otherwise my math matches theirs.

Percentages:

BARR - 24%
RUWART - 24%
ROOT - 20%
GRAVEL - 11%
PHILLIES - 8%
KUBBY - 6%
JINGOZIAN - 4%
SMITH - <1% style="font-weight: bold;">2:34 PM: Damn dialup. Anyway, compare the above with my predictions:

MARY RUWART - 33%
BOB BARR - 20%
WAYNE ALLYN ROOT - 15%
GEORGE PHILLIES - 10%
MIKE GRAVEL - 10%
STEVE KUBBY - 5%
CHRISTINE SMITH - 5%

Root and Barr stronger than I estimated, and Ruwart and Smith MUCH weaker than I estimated. Even as a former Libertarian with no intention of voting for their nominee, that makes me feel a bit better about their prospects. Who knows? Maybe the day will dawn on sanity...

2:38 PM: No state-by-state results per se from now on- not enough time. Overall results-

BARR 188 (+35) 30%
Ruwart 162 (+10) 26%
Root 138 (+15) 22%
Gravel 73 (+2) 12%
Phillies 36 (-13) 6%
Kubby 32 (-8) 5%
NOTA 1
TOTAL (not including write-ins- at least one write-in for Steve Colbert): 630

Kubby out- Phillies apparently not.

I can't keep up with the spreadsheet readoff they're doing, so my own spreadsheeting will lapse.

Kubby out will be a boost to Ruwart.

2:46: An attempt to suspend the rules to dump Phillies off (and save a ballot) failed by overwhelming boos. Steve Kubby was going to speak, but that plus a point of information seems to have scrambled that- wait, here we go. Kubby rambles, buttering up the party as he goes- how wonderful, polite, civilized Libertarians are. (Wasn't he listening to Christine Smith's rant?) Anyway, he endorses Ruwart- no surprise- as "the purest voice for Libertarians."

2:51: You know, it was a scandal in 2004 when Gary Nolan asked to speak after he was eliminated to pledge his support to Mike Badnarik. Now, it looks almost like tradition. Myself, I think it's a good thing- helps speed the process up, fulfills the political rights of the candidates and their campaigns. So long as they keep it short, well and good.

Joe Johnson is speaking while the third ballot is ongoing. He says that Libertarians have to get elected in order to understand what it's like- and that philosophy and debate are by no means enough. ABOUT TIME, TOO.

3:04: Ruwart herself is on C-SPAN now, saying it for herself: she won't be VP for any non-principled Libertarian (Barr, Root, Gravel). Her hang-up: Barr won't yet support legalizing hard drugs, only marijuana.

3:08: The more Ruwart talks, the more she sounds like Hillary Clinton: "Vote for me or my supporters walk."

3:11 PM: Third ballot results:

BARR - 186 (-2) 30%
RUWART - 186 (+24) 30%
ROOT - 146 (+8) 23%
GRAVEL - 78 (+5) 12%
PHILLIES - 31 (-5) 5%

Now the question- which way does Phillies go? Will he go reformer (Barr) or party loyalist (Ruwart)? My money's on Barr, but I'm not confident...

3:15 PM: And here comes Phillies... to endorse everybody, or nobody...? He makes the point that most of his (Mass.) delegates are neo-Pagans, but in the next breath says, "The enemy is not HERE- the enemy is OUT THERE!" No endorsement of any specific candidate. Hm.

3:26 PM: C-SPAN drifts past the Barr and Root campaigns. The topic of discussion: does anybody have the first goddamn idea which way Gravel's delegates will go? Answer: hell no. Personally, I think Gravel can't help but endorse Barr, if he endorses anyone (which he might not).

3:33 PM: Fourth ballot:

BARR - 202 (32%) (+16)
RUWART - 202 (32%) (+16)
ROOT - 149 (24%) (+3)
GRAVEL - 76 (12%) (-2)
NOTA - 3
TOTAL - 632

Gravel out, 5th ballot...

3:36: Massachussetts, Phillies' state, went Ruwart 4, Root 1, NOTA 1.

3:43: I'm surprised Root has lasted this long. Hell, I'm surprised Gravel lasted to the fourth ballot- I'd have thought Phillies would out-do him. Apparently Gravel is not going to do an endorsement, either- at least not before the fifth ballot is done, which it just about is.

3:46 PM: C-SPAN catches Gravel- no official endorsement, but on the 5th ballot he voted for Root. Root. Who'd have thought it?

3:50: And C-SPAN stays on Gravel. Gravel thinks that the LP won't get much done without him as standard-bearer, but his preferences are, in order, Root, Barr, and Ruwart.

3:56: Fifth ballot...

Ruwart 229 (+27) 37%
Barr 223 (+21) 36%
Root 165 (+16) 26%
NOTA 6
TOTAL 623

Root's out, and I suspect Barr wins...

4:00 PM: Will Root endorse? Here he comes... "It's not over, it's just starting!" Yes, actually, it IS over, Wayne... but he endorses Barr and asks to be Barr's VP.

4:02 PM: "I've been respectful of all the other candidates from day one." Oh? What about Ruwart? It was your campaign, Mr. Root, who reminded us all of Ruwart's child-porn gaffe...

4:07 PM: Barr and Root side by side. Nobody should doubt that this, or something much like it, was in the works long before today. It's only logical.

4:13 PM: I don't care that I'm not a Libertarian anymore- I actually regret not being in Denver this weekend. Maybe I should ask around and see if people are willing to donate to make me a full-time political reporter, or something... nah, too many bloggers like me as it is. I'm not a journalist, I'm just a man with opinions.

4:16 PM: Closing in on four hours... and then there's the VP vote after this... the Ruwart people keep trying to get a chant up for "Ma-REE! Mar-REE!" I only hope it's the last rally for the anarchist wing of the LP. I'm not fond of Barr, but if Obama has a meltdown and/or doesn't get the Dem nomination, I might consider voting for Barr. I'd never vote for Ruwart, even if she was the only option against a Bush third term with Bill Clinton as VP.

4:22 PM: Incidentally, I'd rather see Gravel than Root as Barr's VP. In addition to the press and credibility, I'd rather have a boring nut than a truly annoying used car salesman infomercial mogul.

4:25: Yes, I do still have feelings about the LP. I really wanted the moderate part of the party- the part that favors smaller government but gets off the bus long before anarchy- to do well. It's the purists in the party that tend to ruin it for everyone- especially when those same purists run eagerly to Ron "GOP Only" Paul whenever he crooks a finger. There are a lot of outright loons in the LP, but there are some good ideas and some good people in the party- if only the anarchists didn't drown them out or run them out.

4:31: They're being VERY careful with this one, or else there's something strange going on... they keep going through the ballots... wait, here we go...

Sixth ballot:

Barr 324 (+101)
Ruwart 276 (+ 47)
NOTA 24

Barr wins- BARELY, 54% to 46%.

4:33: Ruwart speaks... she's thanking her campaign staff... she had the support of the Neales, which alone would be enough for me to lean against her, even if she wasn't a total anarchist. She thanks her supporters. She doesn't endorse Barr, but she's not badmouthing him like she was on the convention floor between ballots all afternoon. I guess that's something- she's not leading a revolt or a bolt from the party. One wonders what her supporters will do- follow her example, or take their bats and balls and go home...

4:40 PM: Barr speaks. More flattery of the LP. Steve Gordon, formerly of Third Party Watch, stands directly behind him on the platform. The thank-yous are interminable... and I use that word with FEELING... where the hell is the "time's up" cowbell? And he quit without endorsing Root for VP... interesting...

Barr wins AL, AK, CA, DE, FL, GA, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MO, NJ, NY, OH, OK, PA, RI, SC, SD, UT, VA, WY

Ruwart wins AZ, AR, CO, DC, HI, ID, IL, IN, MA, MI, MT, NE, NV, NH, NC, OR, TN, TX, VT, WA, WV, WI

Split ME, MD, MS, NM

NOTA wins CT

4:58: David Weigel of Reason.com on C-SPAN again. He comments that the party platform has been pruned down considerably, but is no longer something opponents can use as a weapon against LP candidates- which, in my view, is a good thing. Weigel all but says this effort was due primarily to Barr supporters. Weigel supposes that Barr will bring in some Ron Paul voters, but points out that Barr will have to "do a little more grovelling" to get LP and Ron Paul voters come November. Weigel predicts Kubby will upset Root for the VP slot.

5:04: Dammit, the VP contest is going to cut into my vigil for the Mars polar lander, which is scheduled to land in less than two hours...

5:21 PM: And C-SPAN is not, after all, going to cover the VP race, which means I'm wrapping up my live-blog of this and switching over to NASA TV to see if the Great Galactic Ghoul swallows up another lander.