Super Tuesday

CALLS CORRECT FOR OVERSTREET: Dem - 10/11, GOP - 8/9

FEB. 3. Democrat POLL-PROJECTED DELEGATE COUNT: Clinton 852, Obama 838.

ESTIMATED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES SO FAR: Obama 449, Clinton 431.

SWING FROM FEB. 3 POLL-PROJECTED DELEGATE COUNT: 18 to Obama.

ESTIMATED PLEDGED DELEGATE TOTAL THUS FAR: Obama 512, Clinton 479.

9 PM: UTAH: Romney, Obama.

NORTH DAKOTA: Obama, current votes 61-37 over Clinton. Delegate projection: Obama 8, Clinton 5. Swing from prior projections: 1 to Obama.

9:08: While Huckabee claims that it's a two-man Republican race- despite not doing anything in Massachusetts and not really in the running in California- let's look at Utah exit polls. Utah is among the whitest states in the Union... and MSNBC has called it for Obama. Women gender gap negligible. Exit poll projected result: 55.9% Obama, 42% Clinton. Projected delegate count: statewide 5-3 Obama, CD-1 3-2 Obama, CD-2 3-3, CD-3 2-2 Obama. Total: 13 Obama, 10 Clinton. Swing: 5 to Obama. Whoops- I blew the call on this state- better correct that.

CALLS CORRECT FOR OVERSTREET: Dem - 10/12, GOP - 8/9

9:17: KANSAS for Obama. Vote total: 72%-27%. W-O-W. Delegate prediction: 8-3 Obama statwide: CD-1, 4 3-1 Obama each; CD-2 4-2 Obama; CD-3 5-2 Obama. Total: 23 Obama, 9 Clinton. Swing from prior estimate: 4 for Obama. Again: W-O-W.

9:22: CONNECTICUT for Obama according to CNN.

CALLS CORRECT FOR OVERSTREET: Dem - 11/13, GOP - 8/9

9:27: MSNBC concurs. Delegate estimates for Connecticut, based on actual vote total at present- 50% Obama, 47% Clinton. Statewide delegates 9-8 Obama; CD-1, 3 4-3 Obama each; CD-2, 5 4-3 each Obama; CD-4 3-2 Obama. Total projected delegates 28 Obama, Clinton 20. Swing from prior estimate: 2 to Obama. This could change, though- it's quite probable that Clinton won majorities in some of these districts. Tight, tight, tight.

9:33 PM: Taegan Goddard at Political Wire projects MINNESOTA for Barack Obama. Another state call I blew- forgive me if I don't feel too broke up about that. }:-{D

CALLS CORRECT FOR OVERSTREET: Dem - 11/14, GOP - 8/9

9:40 PM: DAMN but MSNBC's results page is slow to refresh. I couldn't get CNN's site to work at all- damn flash would never finish loading.

9:41 PM: Georgia goes to Huckabee- barely. Since Georgia breaks up its delegates among districts, he won't get much, but it's something.

CALLS CORRECT FOR OVERSTREET: Dem - 11/14, GOP - 9/10

9:43 PM: Revisiting New Jersey, the actual votes are a lot wider so far than the exit polls showed: 53-44 Clinton with nearly 70% of the vote in. Revisiting the delegate estimate using those numbers means a Clinton swing: 58-49, which is four fewer than my pre-Tuesday estimate for Obama.

9:48 PM: Like New Jersey, Tennessee is showing stronger for Clinton than the exit polls claim. With over three-quarters of the votes in, the split is 58-35, not 51-40. Major Clinton swing in my new estimate: 15 statewide for Clinton, 9 for Obama; CD1 - 2-2; CD2 - 2-2; CD3 = 2-2; CD4 - 3-2; CD5 - 4-2; CD6 - 3-2; CD7 - 3-2; CD8 - 3-2; CD9 = 2-2. Total delegates: Clinton 39, Obama 29, which is still one delegate better than I thought Obama would do. Now let's see if the actual district votes come close to those delegates, hm?

9:51 PM: Hillary talking. Both Hillary and Obama are going to claim victory tonight- no surprise. Gives me a chance to do a delegate check on Minnesota: with 30% of the vote in, Obama 64%, Clinton 34%. Delegate count estimate: statewide 16 Obama, 9 Clinton; CDs 1, 2, 6, 7 - 3-2 Obama; CDs 3, 8 4-2 Obama; CD4 4-3 Obama; CD5 5-3 Obama. Total estimated delegates: Obama 45, Clinton 27. Since I called this state WAY wrong, that's a major swing from my pre-Tuesday estimate: 12 delegates to Obama!

10 PM: Clearing deck now: I wonder, did Clinton choose to talk over the California closing for a reason? Dunno- but MSNBC says in crawl that both Dem and GOP races there are too close to call...