Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday Live Blogging: CA Too Close to Call

CALLS CORRECT FOR OVERSTREET: Dem - 11/14, GOP - 9/10

FEB. 3. Democrat POLL-PROJECTED DELEGATE COUNT: Clinton 852, Obama 838.

ESTIMATED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES SO FAR: Obama 560, Clinton 508.

SWING FROM FEB. 3 POLL-PROJECTED DELEGATE COUNT: 36 to Obama.

ESTIMATED PLEDGED DELEGATE TOTAL THUS FAR: Obama 623, Clinton 556.

10:03: Arizona for McCain: Dems too close to call.

North Dakota for Romney.

Idaho for Obama: current vote 75-23. Delegate crunch: 14 for Obama, 4 for Clinton- barely, it could go 13-5. I'll stick with the former... which is a 5 delegate swing to Obama from my wild-guess estimate from before.

10:08: Chris Matthews hits Huckabee with a line: "I guess you should tell Mitt Romney he should sell no whine before its time." Huckabee says he wanted to use that line, but his staff said no. Cute.

10:09: California exit polls, MSNBC: Dammit. They're heavy for Clinton. Obama wins the male vote, but Clinton dominates the female vote nearly 60-40, and the female-male split is 55-45. My calculation: 50.7% Clinton, 44.4% Obama. Close, but definitely not an Obama victory. Obama won the white vote in California, but lost Hispanics 2-1. That's trouble.

10:15 PM: Clinton wins ARIZONA, 51-40. Delegate crunch: Statewide 11-8 Obama; CD 1, 2, 3, 5 3-2 Clinton; CD4 2-1 Clinton; CD 6, 7 2-2; CD8 3-3. Estimated total: Clinton 32, Obama 24. Swing: 2 to Clinton. Dammit.

CALLS CORRECT FOR OVERSTREET: Dem - 12/15, GOP - 10/12

10:29 PM: Looking at states not yet called.

Very few votes in from California, but heavy Clinton trend.

Colorado, 1/3 of vote in: 64-34 Obama. Why isn't this called yet?

Missouri: was a large Clinton lead, now 50-47, with urban precincts (predicted to favor Obama) yet to report. Good no-call there, but I still think Clinton edges it out.

New Mexico: No returns. Where the hell are the returns? Is something rotten in Denmark?

10:32: Did I mention Minnesota called for Romney? No? Bad call on my part.

CALLS CORRECT FOR OVERSTREET: Dem - 12/15, GOP - 10/13

10:37: McCain up to speak. He's not having nearly as good a night as I expected by states won, but I still think he gets an insurmountable delegate lead tonight- barring, that is, his opponents uniting against him, which I really doubt.

Anyway, looking at New Mexico exit polls... they favor Obama. Dead even split on male-female in MSNBC exit poll. Obama wins whites by double digits; Clinton wins Latinos by double digits, but by 3:2, not 2:1 as in California and Arizona. Could be looking at another blown call on my part (I shed copious tears). Calculated estimated outcome: 49.6% Obama, 43.5% Clinton. If that holds up, it's several delegates swung out of the Clinton to the Obama column in my estimates... again.

10:43: Obama's about to speak; McCain's still talking, but MSNBC covers McCain. CNN does likewise; FOX stays on McCain.

10:45: Obama's revisiting his Speechwriter's Greatest Hits. Need to revisit Arkansas, which is coming out much stronger for Clinton than exit polls showed. With most of the vote in, it's 72-28 Clinton there. New estimate: statewide delegates 9-4 Clinton; CDs 1 and 2 each 4-2; Cds 3 and 4 each 4-1 Clinton, BARELY; either or both could go 3-2. My projection: Clinton 25, Obama 10. Huh- delegate count not changed. OK- I can deal with that. }:-{D

10:50: MSNBC FINALLY calls Colorado for Obama. At last. 64-35 Obama with 60% of the vote in. Also- Tennessee called for Huckabee.

CALLS CORRECT FOR OVERSTREET: Dem - 13/16, GOP - 11/14

Colorado delegate estimate: Obama 35, Clinton 20. Swing from prior estimate: 7 to Obama.

10:55 PM: Revisiting Massachusetts, with most of the vote in. Clinton 56, Obama 41; exit poll was pretty off there. New delegate estimate: 54 Clinton, 39 Obama. New swing from pre-Tuesday estimate: 4 to Clinton. Dammit.

In general the exit polls are pretty close, and there's no consistent pattern to how they're off when they're off. Annoying, but not wholly unexpected; indeed, you'd have had to spend 2000 and 2004 with your head in a bucket (water optional) to not expect exit polls to miss the mark by as much as five percent either way.

Nearly 11 PM here: time to clear decks again. No polls closing until 11:30, when Alaska, the last one to close before I hit the sack tonight, ends voting.

No comments: