6:45 Reminder of score so far:
CALLS CORRECT FOR OVERSTREET: Dem - 1/1, GOP - 0/0
FEB. 3. POLL-PROJECTED DELEGATE COUNT: Clinton 852, Obama 838.
ESTIMATED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES SO FAR: Obama 57, Clinton 30.
SWING FROM FEB. 3 POLL-PROJECTED DELEGATE COUNT: 2 to Obama.
ESTIMATED PLEDGED DELEGATE TOTAL THUS FAR: Obama 120, Clinton 78.
6:48: Looking at MSNBC exit polls for the GOP race in Georgia. The trend is toward Mike Huckabee- very narrowly. It's impossible to project delegates, though; Georgia gives delegates to the winner in each Congressional district, and these numbers are close enough that it's almost certain all the Republican candidates except Paul will get some delegates.
6:53: But We Already Knew That Dept: MSNBC exit polls say GOP vote 93% white.
7 PM: Here we go!
ILLINOIS: Obama (of course) and McCain.
OKLAHOMA: Clinton (of course). GOP too close to call.
NEW JERSEY: McCain. Dems too close to call.
MASSACHUSETTS: Romney. Dems too close to call.
CONNECTICUT: McCain. Dems too close to call.
NEW OVERSTREET SCORE (enjoy it while it's high, here come the blunders): Dem 3/3, GOP 4/5 (I blew the call in West Virginia earlier today).
7:02: Democratic side: MA, NJ, CT, DE, MO, TN, AL too close to call. That's a LOT of vagueness... and what's with Tennessee? That was supposed to be close. Looking VERY good for Obama just now.
7:07: FOX projects Alabama for Mike Huckabee. Not my choice of source, though, so let's hold off...
7:09: Looking at MSNBC exit poll for Delaware- one of my two chosen bellwethers, remember? Male voters- 54-36 Obama, with Joe Biden drawing off 10%. Women- only 50-45 Clinton, with the state being 2/3 white. That's good for Obama. Now to do the number crunch, with women voters 59%, men 41%... Clinton 14.76+29.5=44.26, Obama 22.14 + 26.55 = 48.69. Obama edging it out. I'll wait to call that, but that feels good. Now to look for Missouri exit polls...
7:16: Clinton projected winner in Tennessee. Why did they wait so long? Will it end up being that close? We'll see.
OVERSTREET SCORE: 5/5 Dem, 4/5 GOP.
7:19 PM: While I'm waiting on exit polls to download, something else interesting about the Delaware exit polls: young people virtually nonexistent. Over-65 vote about a third of the total turnout. And yet the polls suggest Obama will still edge out Clinton. Happy happy joy joy!
7:24 PM: OK, Missouri MSNBC Dem exit poll finally downloaded. Male vote: 44%, divided 47-44 Obama. Female vote: 56%, divided 50-44 Clinton, with Edwards stealing 5%. Without doing the math I can see that trends towards Clinton... the first seriously bad news for Obama tonight, in my book. Doing the math, though... 52.6% Clinton, 45.3% Obama. Shouldn't be long until Missouri's called for Clinton.
7:31 PM: Arkansas called for Clinton and Huckabee.
OVERSTREET SCORE: 6/6 DEM, 5/6 GOP.
7:32 PM: Doing Tennessee numbers- TN called for Clinton, remember- to get delegate count. MSNBC exit poll, doing math, shows 51.6% Clinton, 40% Obama. Damn big gender gap AND race gap.
7:35: Delaware for McCain.
OVERSTREET SCORE: 6/6 DEM, 6/7 GOP.
7:36 PM: Back to Dem Tennessee. Based on the exit poll, I'm projecting 14 statewide for Clinton, 10 for Obama; CD1 - 2-2; CD2 - 2-2; CD3 = 2-2; CD4 - 3-2; CD5 - 3-3; CD6 - 3-2; CD7 - 3-2; CD8 - 3-2; CD9 = 2-2. Total delegates: Clinton 37, Obama 31. That would be a swing of 3 to Obama over my projection. Next Illinois, which I don't believe I will go down the individual congressional districts on.
7:43 PM: MSNBC is making its estimates of delegates: AR 23-12 Clinton. GA - 60-27 Obama IL - 111-42 Obama. TN: 38-30 Clinton. We'll see. These are NOT my estimates.
7:45 PM: Illinois- Obama 68%, Clinton 29% going by the MSNBC exit poll. There's 19 congressional districts, so no I will NOT go down them. I'll treat the whole damn state as proportional: Obama 107, Clinton 46. Swing from my estimate: 2 to Clinton. So far, the poll projections are matching up to exit polls.
7:50 PM: Oklahoma- MSNBC Exit Poll: 59% Clinton, 30.4% Obama. Edwards didn't retain enough vote to get any delegates, I think- unless he gets lucky in a congressional district. Again, massive gender split. Delegate split: statewide 9-4 Clinton; all CDs 3-2. Total delegates: 24-14. Swing from my estimate: 3 to Obama.
7:53 PM: Huckabee in Alabama, too.
7:55 PM: Need to clear boards for next closure. Still need to do Arkansas delegates.