CALLS CORRECT FOR OVERSTREET: Dem - 14/17, GOP - 12/16
FEB. 3. Democrat POLL-PROJECTED DELEGATE COUNT: Clinton 852, Obama 838.
ESTIMATED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES SO FAR: Obama 801, Clinton 766.
SWING FROM FEB. 3 POLL-PROJECTED DELEGATE COUNT: 20 to Obama.
ESTIMATED PLEDGED DELEGATE TOTAL THUS FAR: Obama 864, Clinton 814.
11:28 PM: Cats accounted for.
Despite California- if the exit poll is close to accurate- Obama still holds about the 35-delegate advantage. More on that in a bit...
11:30 PM: "Tomorrow will be a day of frank discussions on the campaign" in the Romney camp, MSNBC reports. Among things they're considering is cancelling a trip to Kansas prior to the Republican caucus there Saturday.
11:32 PM: OK, exit polls do not take early voting into account. Early voting favored Clinton by at least 3:2, maybe more. More delegates are going to swing from my estimate into Clinton's column; it's only a matter of time. California could make tonight- thus far- a dead on tie.
But what other victories can Clinton pick up? Missouri is tied with virtually all the polls reporting. Clinton is going to break dead even with Obama there, or pretty close. Exit polls show Obama winning New Mexico. Alaska's a caucus that likely will go overwhelmingly to Obama. American Samoa and Democrats Abroad... we won't know those tonight, but they could go any direction.
We're looking at an almost perfect tie as the Clinton best-case scenario now. At worst, Obama picks up between twenty and forty net delegates, barring some truly strange district-delegate-allocation mathematics.
Obama didn't do as well as I thought he'd do in California, New York, and Massachusetts. The Big State strategy worked that far.
But everywhere else, EVERYWHERE else, Obama did just a little bit better than expected- at least by the numbers I have now. Tonight is, overall, a substantial Obama victory- he wins more states,
11:39 PM: Romney wins Colorado.
CALLS CORRECT FOR OVERSTREET: Dem - 14/17, GOP - 13/17
11:40 PM: MSNBC calls Missouri for Barack Obama. He currently leads by fewer than 5,000 votes there. It still ends up being an even split- 36-36 delegate count, as predicted by Zogby.
11:43 PM: Obama wins Alaska, 72%-27% over Clinton. Delegate estimate: Obama 11, Clinton 5. Swing: 3 to Obama.
CALLS CORRECT FOR OVERSTREET: Dem - 15/19, GOP - 13/17
11:46: What states have gone where? Let's say Missouri is Obama's- it's almost a perfect tie, but let's say. That makes 13 states for Obama, only 8 for Clinton, with New Mexico, Samoa and the expatriate vote yet to come in.
11:50: Chuck Todd at MSNBC predicts Obama 841, Clinton 837- dead tie, plus or minus ten delegates. He probably knows more about district breakdowns than I do. I'm still showing Obama up 40.
Anyway, presume it is a dead tie. Obama is outraising money massively. Can he keep it up? I think so, and so do the talking heads.
And remember the CBS and USA-Today polls that did the split between today's states and the rest? Both polls showed today's states favoring Clinton, but all states put together balancing out... which means from here on out the states favor Obama.
12:04 AM: I think I'll revisit Missouri... and for this one I'll actually dig up the Congressional district maps. There are nine districts. Searching...
12:07 AM: Hey, whaddya know? I think Ron Paul might have actually picked up some delegates in Montana! Let me see... wait no. Montana's winner take all, and Paul is either second or third.
12:10 AM: OK, map of Missouri here. District 1 is downtown St. Louis; 2 and 3 include large suburban areas. District 5 is Kansas City. I presume, absent detailed info, that those districts favored Obama. The other five districts, mostly rural, I think favor Clinton.
So, presuming an Obama win in the vote count, the statewide delegates go 13-12 Obama. CD1: 4-3 Obama. CD2: 3-2 Obama. CD3: 3-3. CD4: 3-2 Clinton. CD5: 3-3. CD6: 3-2 Clinton. CD7: 2-2. CD8: 2-2. CD9: 3-2 Clinton. Total... guess what? 36-36. Even breaking it down, it's still a tie.
12:19 AM: MSNBC dissecting the aftermath. Consensus: it's a tie, but Obama has made significant improvement and comes out marginally stronger.
Clearing decks one more time, before doing at least one more post.