Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday Live Blogging: Checking Math Before Bed

FEB. 3. Democrat POLL-PROJECTED DELEGATE COUNT: Clinton 852, Obama 838.


ESTIMATED DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES SO FAR (not counting New Mexico, American Samoa or ex-pats): Obama 848, Clinton 806.



(The above numbers may change as I double-check my numbers to make sure my exit-poll estimates and mid-count estimates held up through the night.)

OK, going down the list in alphabetical order:

ALABAMA - Exit polls 54-41. Final vote 56-42. Close enough. No change.
ALASKA - Slight increase for Obama, but no delegate change.
ARIZONA - 50-41, rather than 51-40. Either way, about the same, with 72% of the vote. No change.
ARKANSAS - Already double-checked this; no change.

CALIFORNIA - Only 22% of the vote in, and the vote will narrow; currently 54% to 34%. If that sounds bad, bear in mind the first vote totals in were 2:1 Clinton; the longer it goes, the more it'll favor Obama. Too soon to know how much, though, and probably won't know until the last vote gets counted. Not adjusting, but could swing enough to take Obama's current 40-delegate lead to zero.

Pause in re-hash:

12:38 PM: Just Googled: American Samoa is in for Clinton. Seems the vote there took place between 9 AM and 11 AM their time- hours and hours ago. Feh. Anyway, I called that one. Total vote: Clinton 163, Obama 121, Mike Gravel 1. That's 2 delegates for Clinton, 1 for Obama- what I predicted.

Back to the re-hash:

COLORADO: Obama 67-32. Swing of two more delegates to Obama- 37-18.

CONNECTICUT: Final vote 51-47; no change.

DELAWARE: Final vote 53-42. MSNBC calls the delegate break 9-6. That's one more for Obama than I had down.

GEORGIA: Early vote 64-32; final vote 66-31. Close enough; no change.

IDAHO: Final vote Obama 80%, Clinton 18%. Clinton came perilously close to getting NOTHING from Idaho. Nudge one more into Obama's column.

ILLINOIS: Final vote 64-33 Obama. Put five back in the Clinton column, I think.

KANSAS: Final vote 74-26 Obama. Nudge one more delegate to Obama.

MASSACHUSETTS: Final vote 56-41 Clinton. No change.

MINNESOTA: Final vote 67-32 Obama. Three more delegates Obama's way.

MISSOURI: I just DID this! No change.
NEW JERSEY: Final vote 54-44 Clinton. No change.

NEW YORK: Final vote 57-40 Clinton. Hm... four more to Obama! Closed up a little bit, I think.

NORTH DAKOTA: Final vote 61-37: MSNBC reports Obama 8 delegates, Clinton 5. Right.

OKLAHOMA: Final vote 55-31 Clinton. Hm... better recalculate that one. Statewide 8-5 Clinton; all CDs 3-2. Total delegates: 23-15. One more to Obama!

TENNESSEE: Final vote 54-41 Clinton. No change.

1:12 AM: Well, that took a while didn't it?

1:13 AM: One more look at California and New Mexico, a look at my preferred blogs, and then to bed.

1:15 AM: Checking up on the Ron Paul campaign: with Alaska out, it looks like his only hope for a delegate is North Dakota, who has proportionate delegates. MSNBC reports 8 delegates there for the winner, Mitt Romney, and 5 each for McCain, Huckabee, and, yes indeed, Ron Paul. Apparently the militia movement looks after its own.

1:18 AM: 40% of the vote is in from New Mexico; Obama holds a marginal lead. If that holds, it'd be a four delegate swing from when I predicted Clinton to walk away with the state. I'll hold off totting up a delegate count, though; could go either way.

California, with 34% of precincts reporting, and Obama is now down 16%- 53% to 37%. Again, that will reduce down, probaly to under a 10% split. A 50-40 split would result in a delegate count of 205 to 165- an eight-delegate swing, no more. With it that close, I won't change my total- I'll just note a plus-or-minus factor. Considering oddball district assignments, I'll make the total margin of error twenty delegates either way... but more likely in favor of Clinton.

1:24 AM: Romney wins Alaska. Ron Paul 3rd with 17%. There's no direct connection between these vote totals and delegate assignments, but if the state convention decides to make it proportional, Ron Paul could get as many as four delegates from Alaska to go with his nine from North Dakota. Alaska could, on the other hand, give all its delegates to the winner... or, if Romney drops out, they could go anywhere, leaving Paul in the cold (pardon the expression).

Well- my final delegate estimates, awaiting tomorrow to be verified:


Obama 857, Clinton 800.

Add in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina:

Obama 920, Clinton 848.

We'll find out if I'm right tomorrow. For now, bed.

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