* NEWER! CALIFORNIA (primary, 370 delegates): (Rass 1-29) C (43%) 192, O (40%) 176, E (9%) 0 (Swing: 16 delegates to Obama.)
In Massachusetts, things have closed MASSIVELY, according to a Rassumussen poll:
* NEW! MASSACHUSETTS (primary, 93 delegates): (Rass 1-28) C (43%) 50, O (37%) 43, E (11%) 0 (Swing: 20 to Obama.)
Not one but two polls came out in Georgia in the wake of John Edwards leaving the campaign. The InsiderAdvantage poll shows Obama up there 52% to 36. However, the Public Policy Polling poll has a smaller margin of error, and it shows a 51%/41% split. That's the one I'm going to use...
* GEORGIA (primary, 87 delegates): (PPP 1-30) C (41%) 39, O (51%) 48 (Swing: 1 to Obama.)
PPP also has a new poll out for New York, showing Obama closing the gap on Clinton there:
* NEW YORK (primary, 232 delegates): (PPP 1-30-6) C (45%) 134, O (33%) 98, E (10%) 0 (Swing: 21 to Obama.)
On the other hand, InsiderAdvantage has a new Tennessee poll out showing Hillary extending her lead there:
* TENNESSEE (primary, 68 delegates): (WSMV 1-19-21) C (59%) 47, O (26%) 21 (Swing: 6 to Clinton.)
Finally, Gallup's running average national poll after the Edwards "suspension of campaigning" shows Edwards down four points to 7%, with Clinton gaining one point and Obama three. It's tempting to predict that Edwards voters will break for Obama 3-1, but there are all sorts of other factors there... most notably the fact that Edwards voters in the South are not the same group as, for instance, Edwards voters in the Midwest or New England. Instead, I'll just note the basic fact that Gallup shows Obama only four points behind Clinton nationally. (In Rasmussen's tracking poll, though, Clinton still shows a nine-point lead; the day of three-point lead was, sadly, a fluke.)
UNPOLLED
* ALASKA (caucus, 13 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 7, O 8, E 0
* AMERICAN SAMOA (primary, 3 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 2, O 1, E 0
* Dems ABROAD (primary, 7 delegates): (nat'l polls used) (Gallup 1-28-30) C (43%) 4, O (39%) 3
* KANSAS (caucus, 32 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 13, O 19, E 0
* NORTH DAKOTA (caucus, 13 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 6, O 7, E 0
OLD POLLS
* DELAWARE (primary, 15 delegates): (PublicMind 10-6-07) C (41%) 11, O (17%) 4, E (7%) 0
* IDAHO (caucus, 18 delegates): (Greg Smith 7-12-2007) C (31%) 25, 9 (33%) 9, E (15%) 0
* MINNESOTA (caucus, 72 delegates): (Princeton 9-21-2007) C (47%) 49, O (22%) 23, E (16%) 0
* NEW MEXICO (caucus, 26 delegates): (??? 9/5/2007) C (17%) 17, O (8%) 9, E (8%) 0
* UTAH (primary, 23 delegates): (??? 2-11-2007) C (31%) 15, O (18%) 8, E (9%) 0
JANUARY POLLS
* ALABAMA (primary, 52 delegates): (Rass 1-23) C (43%) 31, O (28%) 21, E (16%) 0
* ARIZONA (primary, 56 delegates): (BRC 1-20-4) C (37%) 32, O (27%) 24, E (15%) 0
* ARKANSAS (primary, 35 delegates): (??? 12-14-2007) C (57%) 27, O (17%) 8, E (14%) 0
* COLORADO (caucus, 55 delegates): (MD 1-21-3) C (32%) 27, O (34%) 28, E (17%) 0
* CONNECTICUT (primary, 48 delegates): (Rass 1-27) C (40%) 24, O (40%) 24, E (11%) 0
* ILLINOIS (primary, 153 delegates): (Research 2000 1-23-6) C (22%) 46, O (51%) 107, E (15%) 0
* MISSOURI (primary, 72 delegates): (Rass 1-26) C (43%) 46, O (24%) 26, E (18%) 0
* OKLAHOMA (primary, 38 delegates): (Survey USA 1-27) C (44%) 27, O (19%) 11, E (27%) 0
* NEW JERSEY (primary, 107 delegates): (??? 1-15-22) C (49%) 64, O (32%) 33, E (10%) 0
(Rass- Rasmussen, USA- Survey USA, MD- Mason-Dixon, PPP- Public Policy Polling, WAG- Wild Ass Guess)
New count:
Clinton 919, Obama 759 on February 5. (Net swing to Obama: 52.) That brings the difference to under 200 delegates...
Obama has been showing strength after strength going into tonight's debate (which I'm going to give a miss- I know the positions of both sides on issues I care about, and if anything important is said it'll be repeated ad nauseam for three days afterwards). According to the New York Times, Obama's raised $32 million in January alone:
Obama is now advertising in 20 of the 22 states in play for next week's Super Tuesday and plans to begin advertising in seven more states that hold primaries or caucuses later in February. Rival Hillary Rodham Clinton is advertising in 12 Super Tuesday states, including her own home state of New York. . . . The $32 million raised in one month matches the campaign's best three-month fundraising period in 2007, when the campaign raised $30 million in primary money and $2 million for the general. The money raised in January was all for the primaries.
The two states Obama isn't advertising in are Illinois (his home state) and Oklahoma (where he was eight points behind Edwards in polls prior to Edwards' withdrawal).
Also, the Wall Street Journal and Ron Gunzberger at Politics1.com are speculating that the bulk of Edwards supporters will go over to Obama. I still doubt this, but if Edwards doesn't endorse by Saturday it won't matter.
Now to get to work on the Republican side...
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