Tsunami Tuesday Delegate Estimate- Republicans

With the dust settling on the Democrat side enough that I don't need to do massive adjustments, I'm going to focus today on guesstimating the Republican results for Tsunami Tuesday in the same fashion.

Unlike the Democratic side, where all races award delegates proportionately by one means or another (mostly by a mix of statewide results and Congressional district results), a number of Republican primaries on February 5th are winner-take all. A candidate who grabs these states (which include New York) will be nearly unstoppable for the Republican nomination. The pundits are inclined to pick John McCain as that person, especially since Mitt Romney, the only Republican with money left for ads, isn't running a single television ad in any of the Tsunami Tuesday states.

I'll include polling for all four remaining Republican candidates in this listing. It's still possible that Mike Huckabee might pick up a couple of states in the South. Ron Paul, however, is done to a turn. He might pick up delegates in proportional states, but even then it's a longshot.

Anyway, here we go:

UNLINKED CAUCUS/PRIMARY STATES- NO DIRECT LINK BETWEEN VOTES AND DELEGATES

These states may or may not have any delegates determined on February 5th; I'll calculate them separately.

* ALASKA (caucus, 26 delegates): (unpolled, WAG) McC 20, R 5, H 0, P 1
* COLORADO (caucus, 43 delegates): (MD, 1-21-3) McC (24%) 0, R (43%) 43, H (17%) 0, P (5%) 0
* ILLINOIS (primary, 57 delegates directly elected): (Rass, 1-30) McC (34%) 47, R (26%) 10, H (16%) 0, P (0%) 0
* MINNESOTA (caucus, 38 delegates): (Princeton, 9-21-07) McC (22%) 38, R (5%) 0, H (2%) 0, P (2%) 0

The other states:

UNPOLLED:

* MONTANA (caucus, 25 delegates, WTA): (unpolled, WAG) McC 25, R 0, H 0, P 0
* NORTH DAKOTA (primary, 26 delegates, prop. 15%): (poll, date) McC 18, R 8, H , P
* NORTHERN MARIANAS (caucus, 6 delegates, assignment unknown): (unpolled, WAG) McC 6, R 0, H 0, P 0
* WEST VIRGINIA (state convention, 18 delegates; a primary with 9 other delegates is in May): (unpolled, WAG) McC 3, R 3, H 12, P 0

OLD POLLS:

* ARKANSAS (primary, 34 delegates, prop. 10%): (poll, date) McC (9%) 7, R (7%) 0, H (59%) 27, P (3%) 0
* DELAWARE (primary, 18 delegates, WTA): (PublicMind, 10-6-2007) McC (14%) 18, R (10%), H 0, P 0
* UTAH (primary, 36 delegates, WTA): (Dan Jones, 10-2-2007) McC (6%) 0, R (65%) 36, H (2%) 0, P (1%) 0

JANUARY POLLS:

*ALABAMA (primary, 45 delegates, 21 district prop. 24 statewide prop. 15%): (Rass, 1-23) McC (27%) 20, R (15%) 6, H (27%) 18, P (3%) 0
*ARIZONA (primary, 50 delegates, WTA): (BRC, 1-20-4) McC (40%) 50, R (23%) 0, H (9%) 0, P (3%) 0
*CALIFORNIA (primary, 170 delegates, 159 WTA by Dist. + 11 WTA statwide): (USA, 1-27) McC (37%) 170, R (25%), H (14%) 0, P (4%) 0
* CONNECTICUT (primary, 27 delegates, WTA): (Rass, 1-27) McC (42%) 27, R (26%) 0, H (8%) 0, P (4%) 0
* GEORGIA (primary, 72 delegates, 39 WTA by Dist, 33 WTA statewide): (PPP, 1-30) McC (31%) 18, R (32%) 51, H (24%) 3, P (3%) 0
* MASSACHUSETTS (primary, 40 delegates, prop. 15%): (USA, 1-21-3) McC (29%) 15, R (50%) 25, H (7%) 0, P (6%) 0
* MISSOURI (primary, 58 delegates, WTA): (Ras, 1-26) McC (26%) 0, R (18%) 0, H (27%) 58, P (5%) 0
* NEW JERSEY (primary, 52 delegates, WTA): (Quinnipiac, 1-15-22) McC (29%) 52, R (14%) 0, H (9%) 0, P (7%) 0
* NEW YORK (primary, 87 delegates, WTA): (Gallup, 1-23-6) McC (42%) 87, R (14%) 0, H (8%) 0, P (5%) 0
* OKLAHOMA (primary, 38 delegates, 15 WTA district, 23 WTA statewide): (USA, 1-27) McC (37%) 29, R (19%), H (28%) 9, P (6%)
* TENNESSEE (primary, 39 delegates: see below): (Insider Advantage, 1-30) McC (33%) 23, R (18%) 3, H (25%) 13, P (9%)


(Rass- Rasmussen, USA- Survey USA, MD- Mason-Dixon, PPP- Public Policy Polling, BRC- Behavior Research Center, WAG- Wild Ass Guess)

In Tennessee, if one contender gets two-thirds of the vote, he gets all delegates. If a statewide contender gets 50% or more of the vote, he gets seven statewide delegates, with the remaining five statewide delegates split up among other candidates polling 20% or more. Otherwise the 12 state delegates are split proportionally.

Tennessee's other 27 delegates, along with many in other states, delegates are sometimes selected by district. There proportionality is limited to the top two placers: leader gets two delegates, second-place gets one.

I'm currently calling the unpolled, unconfirmable states to go McCain 105, Romney 58, Huckabee 0, and... I'll give Ron Paul one Alaska delegate, more out of kindness than any confidence.

In the states we can and will know something by the morning of February 6, the margin's even broader: McCain 568, Romney 132, Huckabee 140, Paul 0.

And if you'll look at the numbers, there are very few places indeed where anything is close. Huckabee currently wins Missouri's winner-take-all contest by the slimmest of margins (and Rasmussen shows him losing by eight points to McCain in a marginally older poll). Georgia is a toss-up, as is Alabama... but Alabama's a proportionate-delegate state.

With momentum and popularity on his side, despite the hue and cry from right-wing radio, McCain now has this nomination in his back pocket. He'll leave February 8th nearly three-quarters of the way to the nomination, with all his rivals combined not able to show half his delegate total. At this point it will take a miracle for Romney or Huckabee to overtake him.

I'm not holding my breath.