Democratic Tsunami Tuesday Delegate Update- Edwards Out

John Edwards just made a rather empty, feel-good speech announcing his "withdrawal" from the Presidential race. He hasn't endorsed anyone as yet.

As you might guess, this shakes up all the math I did yesterday, which means my Republican estimates get pushed back to tomorrow.

There's also new polls in California and Oklahoma, so I'd need to update those anyway. Here we go...

A new poll from Survey USA shows a marginal shift with Obama and Clinton picking up more support, with Obama getting the edge:

* NEW! CALIFORNIA (primary, 370 delegates): (USA 1-27) C (49%) 208, O (38%) 162, E (9%) 0

A new Oklahoma poll shows Obama static, Clinton losing support marginally to Edwards- ironic, with Edwards dropping out. Adjusting the outcome to reflect Edwards dropping out:

* OKLAHOMA (primary, 38 delegates): (Survey USA 1-27) C (44%) 27, O (19%) 11, E (27%) 0

And here's the rest of the pre-existing estimates, revised to redistribute Edwards' delegates...

UNPOLLED

* ALASKA (caucus, 13 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 7, O 8, E 0
* AMERICAN SAMOA (primary, 3 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 2, O 1, E 0
* Dems ABROAD (primary, 7 delegates): (nat'l polls used) (Gallup 1-26-8) C (43%) 4, O (34%) 3, E (14%) 0
* KANSAS (caucus, 32 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 13, O 19, E 0
* NORTH DAKOTA (caucus, 13 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 6, O 7, E 0

OLD POLLS

* DELAWARE (primary, 15 delegates): (PublicMind 10-6-07) C (41%) 11, O (17%) 4, E (7%) 0
* IDAHO (caucus, 18 delegates): (Greg Smith 7-12-2007) C (31%) 25, 9 (33%) 9, E (15%) 0
* MINNESOTA (caucus, 72 delegates): (Princeton 9-21-2007) C (47%) 49, O (22%) 23, E (16%) 0
* NEW MEXICO (caucus, 26 delegates): (??? 9/5/2007) C (17%) 17, O (8%) 9, E (8%) 0
* UTAH (primary, 23 delegates): (??? 2-11-2007) C (31%) 15, O (18%) 8, E (9%) 0

JANUARY POLLS

* ALABAMA (primary, 52 delegates): (Rass 1-23) C (43%) 31, O (28%) 21, E (16%) 0
* ARIZONA (primary, 56 delegates): (BRC 1-20-4) C (37%) 32, O (27%) 24, E (15%) 0
* ARKANSAS (primary, 35 delegates): (??? 12-14-2007) C (57%) 27, O (17%) 8, E (14%) 0
* COLORADO (caucus, 55 delegates): (MD 1-21-3) C (32%) 27, O (34%) 28, E (17%) 0
* CONNECTICUT (primary, 48 delegates): (Rass 1-27) C (40%) 24, O (40%) 24, E (11%) 0
* GEORGIA (primary, 87 delegates): (Rass 1-22) C (35%) 40, O (41%) 47, E (13%) 0
* ILLINOIS (primary, 153 delegates): (Research 2000 1-23-6) C (22%) 46, O (51%) 107, E (15%) 0
* MASSACHUSETTS (primary, 93 delegates): (USA 1-23) C (59%) 70, O (22%) 23, E (11%) 0
* MISSOURI (primary, 72 delegates): (Rass 1-26) C (43%) 46, O (24%) 26, E (18%) 0
* NEW JERSEY (primary, 107 delegates): (??? 1-15-22) C (49%) 64, O (32%) 33, E (10%) 0
* NEW YORK (primary, 232 delegates): (Gallup 1-23-6) C (56%) 155, O (28%) 77, E (10%) 0
* TENNESSEE (primary, 68 delegates): (WSMV 1-19-21) C (43%) 25, O (28%) 17, E (16%) 10

(Rass- Rassmussen, USA- Survey USA, MD- Mason-Dixon, WAG- Wild Ass Guess)

On the whole, Edwards dropping out is bad for Obama, unless Edwards endorses... or unless Edwards voters go heavily for Obama. Polls taken by various sources differ on whether or not this would happen, but the most recent Associated Press poll gives Clinton the advantage among Edwards supporters, 40% to 25%.

There are two encouraging points to Obama supporters like myself. The first point is that, according to Edwards campaign manager (and former Howard Dean manager) Joe Trippi, both Obama and Clinton's campaign are desperately negotiating for Edwards' endorsement. Edwards' silence helps Hillary, and the longer he stays silent the less influence he'll have on the outcome. For the Clintons to be bidding for Edwards' support means that the Clintons are scared. They're worried that Obama might pull an upset on Tuesday, or that he might pull it out in the long run. They want this race over as soon as possible. The fact that they're worried, or at least acting worried, implies that they know something we don't... that Hillary is vulnerable.

The other encouraging point is that, so far as I can tell from televised reporting, Edwards contacted Clinton first to inform her that he was dropping out. Political etiquette is that, if you're going to endorse somebody, you contact them last. Ted Kennedy, for instance, contacted the Clintons before contacting the Obama camp, which is why the Clinton campaign announced the endorsement for Obama first. Edwards may be leaning towards Obama...

... and, as I finish my math, I find that Edwards dropping out helps Obama out a ton in his home state of Illinois. That gives Obama nearly thirty additional delegates there to Clinton's six additional. Although Edwards being out appears to hurt Obama in the long run, it might just give him a short-term boost in February 5th delegates. Clinton's still nearly three hundred ahead by my count, though:

Clinton 971 (+48), Obama 709 (+71) on February 5.

Obama has a LOT of work to do...