Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Tsunami Tuesday Poll Standings, 1-29-2008

Experiment: see how things currently stand on Tsunami Tuesday not in terms of individual state polls, not in terms of national polling, but in terms of actual delegates should current standings continue.

This is going to be based on polls- which have, by and large, been WILDLY inaccurate thus far on the Democratic side. They've been pretty close on the Republican side, but the Democratic polls blew the call entirely in New Hampshire and utterly missed the degree of Obama's win in South Carolina. There are also some truly massive "Undecided" numbers to deal with.

But, alas, they're all we have until the actual votes come in.

So, here we go, with the most recent polls available for each state and my estimate of how that plays out in delegates. (NOTE: In this round, pretty much all these polls are pre-South Carolina; whatever bounce Obama's win there hasn't shown in polls yet, never mind whatever he gets from Ted Kennedy endorsing him.)

WARNING: These delegates are based on simple statewide proportional representation. Most Democratic states actually mix statewide representation with by-Congressional-district proportional representation. This is why, for instance, Barack Obama got 13 delegates in Nevada to Clinton's 12; he won everything except Las Vegas, and thus took an advantage in the rural Congressional districts. I don't have by-district breakdowns of polling, so I can't track those delegates accurately. This is a very rough guess. I adjust caucus states to take away delegates from borderline-viable candidates. (Viable = 15% or greater.)

Polls in BOLD are from polls taken after South Carolina.

First, let's get some states out of the way- those I can't find a poll for at all, where I'm just going to make a guess based on other factors:

* ALASKA (caucus, 13 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 7, O 8, E 0
* AMERICAN SAMOA (primary, 3 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 2, O 1, E 0
* Dems ABROAD (primary, 7 delegates): (nat'l polls used) (Gallup 1-26-8) C (43%) 4, O (34%) 3, E (14%) 0
* KANSAS (caucus, 32 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 13, O 19, E 0
* NORTH DAKOTA (caucus, 13 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 6, O 7, E 0

Alaska, Kansas and North Dakota are western states; since Obama is marginally leading in Colorado and won rather handily in Iowa, I'm extrapolating narrow leads in those states for him. The expatriate vote I'm going to guess according to national polls.

Next, those states I couldn't find any polls for from January:

* DELAWARE (primary, 15 delegates): (??? 10-6-07) C (41%) 11, O (17%) 4, E (7%) 0
* IDAHO (caucus, 18 delegates): (Greg Smith 7-12-2007) C (31%) 25, 8 (33%) 9, E (15%) 1
* MINNESOTA (caucus, 72 delegates): (Princeton 9-21-2007) C (47%) 41, O (22%) 19, E (16%) 14
* NEW MEXICO (caucus, 26 delegates): (??? 9/5/2007) C (17%) 13, O (8%) 7, E (8%) 6
* UTAH (primary, 23 delegates): (??? 2-11-2007) C (31%) 12, O (18%) 7, E (9%) 4

These are all questionable- especially New Mexico, which had Bill Richardson at over 40%.

Finally, those states with polls in the last thirty days- including a poll from Connecticut which was taken the day after the South Carolina primary:

* ALABAMA (primary, 52 delegates): (Rass 1-23) C (43%) 25, O (28%) 17, E (16%) 10
* ARIZONA (primary, 56 delegates): (BRC 1-20-4) C (37%) 30, O (27%) 20, E (15%) 6
* ARKANSAS (primary, 35 delegates): (??? 12-14-2007) C (57%) 25, O (17%) 7, E (14%) 3
* CALIFORNIA (primary, 370 delegates): (Gallup 1-23-6) C (47%) 212, O (35%) 158, E (10%) 0
* COLORADO (caucus, 55 delegates): (MD 1-21-3) C (32%) 24, O (34%) 25, E (17%) 6
* CONNECTICUT (primary, 48 delegates): (Rass 1-27) C (40%) 24, O (40%) 24, E (11%) 0
* GEORGIA (primary, 87 delegates): (Rass 1-22) C (35%) 40, O (41%) 47, E (13%) 0
* ILLINOIS (primary, 153 delegates): (Research 2000 1-23-6) C (22%) 38, O (51%) 78, E (15%) 26
* MASSACHUSETTS (primary, 93 delegates): (USA 1-23) C (59%) 70, O (22%) 23, E (11%) 0
* MISSOURI (primary, 72 delegates): (Rass 1-26) C (43%) 37, O (24%) 20, E (18%) 15
* NEW JERSEY (primary, 107 delegates): (??? 1-15-22) C (49%) 64, O (32%) 33, E (10%) 0
* NEW YORK (primary, 232 delegates): (Gallup 1-23-6) C (56%) 155, O (28%) 77, E (10%) 0
* OKLAHOMA (primary, 38 delegates): (??? 1-11-3) C (45%) 19, O (19%) 8, E (25%) 11
* TENNESSEE (primary, 68 delegates): (WSMV 1-19-21) C (43%) 25, O (28%) 17, E (16%) 10

(Rass- Rassmussen, USA- Survey USA, MD- Mason-Dixon, WAG- Wild Ass Guess)

Based on these numbers, I'm currently guessing- not predicting, guessing- that Clinton takes more than half the delegates available on Tsunami Tuesday... not factoring in any effects from South Carolina, Florida, or the Kennedy endorsement. My math shows Feb. 5th results of Clinton 923, Obama 638, Edwards 112. Obama's closing up the gap in California, but a fifth of expected voters (according to Gallup) have already voted absentee, which gives Clinton an irrevocable advantage there. I'm currently predicting Obama to win Illinois, Georgia, Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Kansas, and North Dakota... but except for Illinois, his home state, all his wins look very, very narrow. Most of Hillary's wins are by very broad margins... as things stood before Saturday night.

This, of course, is not including superdelegates.

Hillary wouldn't get enough delegates to win the nomination outright, but she'd open up a gap that would be very hard for Obama to overcome- a gap larger than John Edwards' trickle of delegates could fill in. I say it again: Edwards' kingmaker strategy is a bust. He needs to make a deal, endorse one or the other frontrunner, and get out while he has something to negotiate with.

I'm expecting the polls to close up a bit as Tsunami Tuesday comes, and for some of these poorly polled or unpolled states to do some polling. I'll update daily if there are new polls out on that day.

As I recover from a computer glitch and finish this entry, McCain is being called the winner in Florida. Giuliani has not bowed out yet, but rumor is he'll endorse McCain tomorrow. Huckabee placed fourth, but won some counties; Giuliani didn't win a single county, or so it currently appears. The Republican race is a two-man run now, McCain and Romney, with McCain holding the momentum and the big-state advantage. I'll go down the Republican numbers tomorrow- with the remote possibility of predicting that the two-man race will be all but over on February 6.

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