Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Texas GOP Embarrasses Us All, Plus State Poll Update

First, a button which should have got the vendor thrown bodily out of the Texas GOP convention this past weekend, but apparently didn't:

Click here for open racism.

According to the above, the button was for sale at a booth run by these guys. They don't have that button in their listings, but they have others which are real *cough* winners.

This is right up there with the Obama sock monkey, made in Utah.

Aside from that comparison, words fail me- except that I hope every single educated white person and every minority group in Texas gets to know about that button- and votes on that knowledge come November.

On to the national level, FiveThirtyEight has updated its estimates and polling averages in the past twelve days since I first broke down the states into Solid, Wobbly, and Leaning/Tossup. Looking at the numbers, there have been some substantial shifts in 538's mathematical regression model, which forms the baseline for their predictions. These shifts, based on the recent national bump for Obama from getting the Democratic nomination, uniformly favors Obama. I'm going to give some weight to recent polling, though, to counterbalance bias at 538 if it exists, to hold states out of Solid status if there's any doubt.

SOLID --> WOBBLY - Well, no. Once I call a state Solid, I don't give a damn about it anymore; there's no way the vote is going to shift enough for it not to go for that person. It might end up closer than 10% come the election, but it's going to stay in that column barring an electoral earthquake. Forget it.

WOBBLY --> SOLID - Massachusetts goes Solid to Obama, with the two most recent polls showing him up over 10% (and the most recent over 20%)

WOBBLY --> LEAN/TOSSUP - Florida goes from Wobbly for McCain to Leaning McCain; North Carolina goes from Wobbly for McCain to Leaning McCain


SHIFTS WITHIN LEAN/TOSSUP - Indiana and Missouri go from Lean McCain to Tossup. Virginia goes from leaning McCain to Lean Obama. New Hampshire and Ohio go from Tossup to Lean Obama.

So, here's my numbers:

SOLID OBAMA (12/51) - 157 EV
WOBBLY OBAMA (7/51) - 59 EV

SOLID McCAIN (10/51) - 69 EV
WOBBLY McCAIN (10/51) - 91 EV

LEAN/TOSSUP (12/51) - 161 EV

On the 6th my estimate of solid + wobbly was Obama 214, McCain 202- pretty close. The above shifts change that to Obama 216, McCain 160- not so much a gain for Obama as weakness on McCain's part.

We'll keep watching the polls...

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