Super Tuesday Pre-Live-Polling Preview

Beginning in about five hours, I'm going to live-blog: that is, I'll keep a "Create Post" entry open, type in it whatever I'm thinking at the moment, and hit "Publish" every hour (unless something big happens, in which case I'll hit it immediately).

California is the big talk of the day, and of course it's one of the last states to decide. Polls are wildly divided, as Talking Points Memo points out. Survey USA is the outfit that predicted that over half the votes would be by mail or early votes, and that Clinton would have a twenty-five percentile advantage in those votes. Zogby, on the other hand, claims to have taken early votes into account... and shows an Obama victory. Most other polls drop in the middle, with a marginal Clinton edge in the averages.

In general, though, the final pre-vote polls have hinted at a Clinton resurgence. Clinton holds a five-point advantage in the Gallup tracking poll (she's held steady at 47% support, while Obama has dropped marginally over the past two days). Rasmussen shows a similar gap, but with Obama holding steady while Clinton gains marginally. Other national polls show dead heats. The hints of Clinton recovery are only that, though- some individual state polls show Obama leading in states that have been called as safe for Clinton, including Massachusetts. One thing is for certain: either Survey USA or Zogby will have egg on their faces big time this time tomorrow.

Now, a preview of my predictions for states.

First, the Republican side- and I'm going to deliberately err and give Mike Huckabee the strongest possible result on his side:

HUCKABEE WINS: Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri
ROMNEY WINS: Massachusetts, Colorado, Utah, West Virginia
MCCAIN WINS: Everything Else

Simple, right? (Incidentally, there's a second vote going on in the West Virginia convention right now; no candidate got the majority on the first vote. Stand by.)

Now for the Democrats, who are much more complex. I'm going to go down those in order of polls closing:

6 PM CST: GEORGIA.
My poll-delegate prediction was: Obama 55, Clinton 32
My state prediction: OBAMA

The polls have been pretty consistent here- no surprises.

7 PM: CONNECTICUT
My poll-delegate prediction was: Obama 26, Clinton 22
My state prediction: OBAMA

And this one's going to be damn close, I think.

DELAWARE
My poll-delegate prediction was: Clinton 8, Obama 7
My state prediction: OBAMA

Polls are too light on the ground here. I think momentum puts Obama just over the top. This is my early bell-wether for the whole shooting match. The candidate who wins Delaware has the advantage for the day.

ILLINOIS
My poll-delegate prediction was: Obama 129, Clinton 44
My state prediction: OBAMA

Nobody questions who wins Illinois: the only issue is, by how much?

NEW JERSEY
My poll-delegate prediction was: Clinton 54, Obama 53
My state prediction: CLINTON

I don't think it'll be as close here as the polls claim. If it is this close in New Jersey, that's very very bad for Clinton.

MISSOURI
My poll-delegate prediction was: Clinton 36, Obama 36
My state prediction: CLINTON

This is my second bell-wether. Delaware tells us who is winning: Missouri tells us how much. If the same candidate wins both states, they're going to have a big night; if the two states split, it'll essentially be a national tie.

OKLAHOMA
My poll-delegate prediction was: Clinton 27, Obama 11
My state prediction: CLINTON

Do you know there's a chance Edwards might still pick up a delegate or two here? Obama was polling third in this state when Edwards dropped out. Oklahoma was the only state voting today (besides his home state) that Obama didn't advertise in. He's given up on this state... which means it's probably Clinton's biggest by-proportion win of the night.

TENNESSEE
My poll-delegate prediction was: Clinton 40, Obama 28
My state prediction: CLINTON

Tennessee polls show Obama making no ground to speak of- an anomaly in the polls. He's campaigned and advertised there, but the only way it doesn't go Clinton is if Obama essentially sweeps tonight- which no poll has even suggested.

MASSACHUSETTS
My poll-delegate prediction was: Clinton 50, Obama 43
My state prediction: CLINTON

The lead was too large for Obama to close up. Although some last-minute polls show the state tied, other polls have suggested a pro-Clinton last-minute swing. I really think she holds this one out.

ALABAMA
My poll-delegate prediction was: Clinton 27, Obama 25
My state prediction: CLINTON

Very, very narrowly. I think race prejudice remains at its strongest in the South, and thanks to good old Bill that prejudice has come to the fore against Obama. It's worth noting that the lying Obama-is-Muslim-and-hates-America email is believed by a LOT of people down here.

7:30 PM: ARKANSAS
My poll-delegate prediction was: Clinton 27, Obama 8
My state prediction: CLINTON

Home state action again. This might even be a larger margin than Oklahoma.

8:00 PM: MINNESOTA
My poll-delegate prediction was: Clinton 39, Obama 33
My state prediction: CLINTON

... but this is a caucus, and for the most part the Clinton campaign has abandoned caucus states to focus on primary states (and big primary states especially). Most pundits are calling this for Obama, so don't be surprised if I'm wrong here.

NORTH DAKOTA
My poll-delegate prediction was: Obama 7, Clinton 6
My state prediction: OBAMA

Another caucus state. Unlike Minnesota, Clinton hasn't campaigned here at ALL. The margin might be much larger.

NEW MEXICO
My poll-delegate prediction was: Clinton 17, Obama 9
My state prediction: CLINTON

This one probably will be a lot closer than my delegate prediction. There are no good polls to change it, though.

ARIZONA
My poll-delegate prediction was: Clinton 30, Obama 26
My state prediction: CLINTON

The most recent polls suggest a dead tie; I think Clinton has more of an edge here.

NEW YORK
My poll-delegate prediction was: Clinton 30, Obama 26
My state prediction: CLINTON

Clinton will probably win the state that sends her to the Senate. However, there have been rumors floating the past week suggesting that Obama might win the Congressional districts in and around NYC itself. If this state comes in too close to call at the time the polls close, it will be a very bad night for Clinton indeed... but she'll end up winning it, big or small.

9 PM: UTAH
My poll-delegate prediction was: Clinton 15, Obama 8
My state prediction: CLINTON

The most recent polls suggest this has pulled into a dead heat. However, Utah is one of the whitest states in the US... which takes away Obama's advantage among blacks. If Obama pulls off an upset in Utah, that would put paid once and for all to his ability to draw the white vote.

COLORADO

My poll-delegate prediction was: Obama 28, Clinton 27
My state prediction: OBAMA

The last poll on this is weeks old, and it's a caucus, so the difference could be much broader. I'm confident in my pick of Obama here, though; I think he'll do well in swing states in general.

KANSAS
My poll-delegate prediction was: Obama 19, Clinton 13
My state prediction: OBAMA

Another caucus state, another Clinton write-off.

10 PM: CALIFORNIA
My poll-delegate prediction was: Obama 194, Clinton 176 (I think Zogby's more accurate...)
My state prediction: CLINTON (... but I don't have too much faith in polls)

And here's the question mark from above. Nobody knows anymore where this will go, but anything other than a big Clinton win will be called as victory for Obama. An actual Obama win in the popular vote could spell doom for the Clinton campaign. My expectation is a substantial Clinton win in the popular vote, but a delegate even split.

IDAHO
My poll-delegate prediction was: Obama 9, Clinton 9
My state prediction: OBAMA

18,000 people at an Idaho rally for a candidate... when only about 5,000 voted in that party's caucus in 2004? Plus caucus state? Plus Clinton write-off? I think the delegate count will be lopsided in Obama's favor, ancient polls be damned.

11:30 PM: ALASKA
My poll-delegate prediction was: Obama 8, Clinton 7
My state prediction: OBAMA

No polls, no campaigning, but it's a caucus state in a red state known for a strong independent streak. That spells Obama to me.

WON'T KNOW UNTIL TOMORROW: AMERICAN SAMOA
My poll-delegate prediction was: Clinton 2, Obama 1
My state prediction: CLINTON

All name recognition here. Unfortunately, Samoa is just this side of the International Date Line, making it the last place to vote today.

WON'T KNOW FOR SURE EVEN THEN: DEMOCRATS ABROAD
My poll-delegate prediction was: Clinton 4, Obama 3 (based on national polls)
My state prediction: OBAMA

... and the very first vote of the day, the tiny Indonesian expatriate vote in Jakarta, has gone 75% for Obama. I think the expatriates are going to go for a dreamer and an unknown far more than for the known quality of the wife of a president with a blundering but well-intentioned foreign policy. It'll be days, possibly weeks, before we know for certain, though; votes and caucuses will continue through the 11th.

Well, there are my predictions, possibly all wrong. (In the case of California, I'll be wrong whatever happens. That's what happens when you predict both ways.) It'll be entertaining to find out...

... but in the meantime I'm going to lie down, relax, and let the caffeine from lunch get out of my system.

EDIT: And almost as soon as I hit Publish on this post, MSNBC called West Virginia for Mike Huckabee. Bad for Romney, and not good for my predictive ability...