Well, I'll be out of town for the Puerto Rico primaries and the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting, so I won't be doing timely blogging on that.
Instead, thanks to the Green Papers, I can actually do a post-mortem on the Libertarian Presidential nomination fight- and see whose supporters went to who, more or less.
There will, of course, be inaccuracies- a truly accurate judging would require the cooperation of 638 delegates who I can't afford to look up (and many of whom have good reason not to talk to me). This is as close to accurate as you can get when all you have to work with is the numbers.
Right- on to the crunching. My methodology is this: whenever a candidate was eliminated between ballots, look at the states where that candidate had votes, and see how the votes changed from ballot to ballot on a state-by-state basis.
The first problem is, of course, the first ballot. More than one candidate was dropped after the first ballot- Jingozian, Smith, and the write-ins (including Imperato, who got Arkansas' sole delegate on the first ballot. WHY??). Since Smith was the most radical anarchist of the candidates who got nomination speeches, I'm going to presume her vote went to Ruwart if I can't track it directly otherwise.
OK, here we go...
FIRST BALLOT RESULTS: Barr 153, Ruwart 152, Root 123, Gravel 71, Phillies 49, Kubby 41, Jingozian 23, Smith 6, Ron Paul (write-in) 6, Penn Gillette (write-in) 3, Daniel Imperato (write-in) 1, William Keohler (write-in) 1.
SWINGS FROM FIRST TO SECOND BALLOT:
ARIZONA: 1 from Phillies to Kubby
ARKANSAS: 1 from Imperato to Phillies
CALIFORNIA: Barr gains 4, Root 3, Ron Paul 1; Kubby loses 3, Phillies loses 5. Presuming 1 Kubby -> Paul, 3 Phillies -> Root, 2 each Kubby and Phillies -> Barr.
COLORADO: 2 from Jingozian to Kubby, 1 from RP to Ruwart, 1 from Smith to Ruwart, 2 from Ron Paul to Root.
CONNECTICUT: 1 from Kubby to Barr, 1 from Kubby to Root.
DELAWARE: 1 from Ron Paul to Root.
FLORIDA: 1 from Gravel to Barr; 1 from Phillies to Barr; 1 from Ruwart to Barr
IDAHO: 1 from Jingozian to Root; 1 from Ruwart to Root
ILLINOIS: 2 from Jingozian to Root; 2 previously not voting to Root
INDIANA: 1 from Phillies to Barr; 2 from Jingozian to Root
KANSAS: 1 from Jingozian to Root
LOUISIANA: 1 from Smith to Steven Colbert, 1 from Root to Gravel, 1 previously unvoted to Gravel
MAINE: 1 from Ron Paul to Ruwart
MARYLAND: 1 from Kubby to Ruwart, 2 from Phillies to Gravel, 1 from Phillies to Ruwart
MICHIGAN: 1 from Kubby to Ruwart, 1 from Jingozian to Root, 1 from Gravel to Barr
MINNESOTA: 1 from Smith to Ruwart, 1 from Root to Gravel
MISSISSIPPI: 1 from Root to Ruwart
MISSOURI: 2 from Jingozian to Root, 2 from Kubby to Barr, 1 from Ruwart to Barr
MONTANA: 1 from Phillies to Kubby
NEBRASKA: 1 from Ruwart to Barr
NEVADA: 1 from Smith to Ruwart
NEW HAMPSHIRE: 1 from NOTA to Root
NEW MEXICO: 1 from Keohler to Phillies, 1 from Smith to Ruwart. 1 from Ruwart to Root, 1 from Kubby to Root
NEW YORK: 1 from Jingozian to Root, 1 from Root to Ruwart, 1 from Root to Kubby
OKLAHOMA: 2 from Kubby to Root, 1 from Kubby to Gravel
OREGON: 5 from Jingozian to Barr, 2 from Jingozian to Gravel, 1 from Jingozian to Phillies, 1 from Smith to Ruwart
PENNSYLVANIA: 3 from Penn Gillette to Bob Barr, 1 from Jingozian to Barr, 2 from Phillies to Root, 1 from Phillies to Ruwart
TENNESSEE: 1 from Phillies to Ruwart, 1 from Kubby to Ron Paul
TEXAS: 2 from Gravel to Barr, 1 from Kubby to Barr, 1 from Phillies to Barr, 1 from Root to Barr
UTAH: 1 from Gravel to Barr, 1 from Phillies to Kubby, 1 from Phillies to Ruwart
VIRGINIA: 1 from Jingozian to Gravel
WASHINGTON: 1 from Kubby to Ruwart, 2 from Root to Barr, 1 from Gravel to Barr
WISCONSIN: 1 from Gravel to Ruwart
WYOMING: 1 from Ruwart to Barr
TOTALS (ignoring write-ins like Ron Paul, so no the numbers won't precisely match):
SMITH- 5 to Ruwart, 1 to Steven Colbert (and later to Root)
JINGOZIAN- 10 to Root, 6 to Barr, 2 to Gravel, 2 to Kubby, 1 to Barr, 1 to Phillies, 1 dropped out
Also, in shifting:
KUBBY- lost 6 to Barr, 3 to Root, 3 to Ruwart, 1 to Gravel; gained 3 from Phillies and 1 from Root
PHILLIES- lost 5 to Root, 5 to Barr, 4 to Ruwart, 3 to Kubby, 2 to Gravel
GRAVEL- lost 6 to Barr, 1 to Ruwart; gained 3 from Jingozian, 2 from Phillies, 2 from Root, 1 from Kubby.
ROOT- lost 2 each to Gravel, Ruwart and Barr, and 1 to Kubby; gained 10 from Jingozian, 5 from Phillies, 3 from Kubby and 2 from Ruwart
And the two frontrunners? Ruwart lost 4 to Barr; no Barr voters, apparently, switched to Ruwart on the second ballot.
Now on to the third ballot, after Kubby was eliminated:
ALABAMA - 1 from Kubby to Ruwart
ARIZONA - 4 from Kubby to Ruwart, 1 from Root to Barr
ARKANSAS - 1 from Phillies to Ruwart
CALIFORNIA - 3 Kubby not voting, 1 from Gravel to Ruwart, 1 from Phillies to Ruwart
COLORADO - 4 from Kubby to Root, 1 from Phillies to Barr
FLORIDA - 1 from Barr to NOTA
HAWAII - 1 from Kubby to Ruwart
IDAHO - 2 from Kubby to Ruwart
ILLINOIS - 2 from Kubby to Ruwart, 2 from Root to Barr, 1 Root not voting
LOUISIANA - 1 from Colbert to Root
MARYLAND - 1 from Phillies to Gravel, 1 from Phillies to Ruwart
MICHIGAN - 1 Barr not voting
MINNESOTA - 1 from Gravel to Root
MISSOURI - 1 from Kubby to Ruwart, 1 from Barr to Root
MONTANA - 1 from Kubby to Root, 1 from Kubby to Ruwart
NEVADA - 1 from Kubby to Ruwart
NEW HAMPSHIRE - 1 from Kubby to Gravel, 1 from Kubby to Ruwart
NEW MEXICO - 1 from Kubby to Ruwart
NEW YORK - 1 from Kubby to Gravel, 1 from Kubby to Ruwart
OREGON - 1 from Kubby to Phillies
PENNSYLVANIA - 2 from Kubby to Ruwart, 2 from Kubby to Root, 1 from Kubby to Gravel
SOUTH CAROLINA - 1 previously not voted to Gravel
TENNESSEE - 1 from Barr to Root, 1 from Ron Paul to Ruwart
TEXAS - 1 from Kubby to Ruwart, 1 from Barr to Ruwart, 1 from Barr to Root, 1 from Barr to Gravel, 1 previously not voting for Gravel
UTAH - 1 from Jesse Ventura to Bob Barr, 1 from Kubby to Ruwart
WEST VIRGINIA - 1 from Kubby to Gravel
TOTALS
KUBBY - 20 to Ruwart, 7 to Root, 4 to Gravel, 3 not voting, 1 to Phillies
PHILLIES - 2 to Ruwart, 1 to barr, 1 to Gravel
Gravel lost one each to Ruwart and Root. Root lost three to Barr... and gained three from Barr in other states. Barr lost one vote each to Ruwart, NOTA, and to absentee. Ruwart lost nothing.
Ballot 4 (Phillies out):
ARIZONA - 1 from Gravel to Root
CALIFORNIA - 4 from Phillies to Ruwart, 2 from Gravel to Ruwart, 1 from Gravel to Root, 1 from Ron Paul to Ruwart
COLORADO - 1 from Phillies to Ruwart, 1 from Root to Barr
CONNECTICUT - 1 from Barr to Gravel; 1 from Root to Gravel; 1 from Ruwart to Gravel
FLORIDA - 1 from not voting (from Barr, from Ruwart) to Ruwart; 1 from Barr to Ruwart; 1 from Phillies to Ruwart; 1 from Root to Ruwart
ILLINOIS - 1 from Phillies to Gravel; 1 not voting (from Root) to Root
INDIANA - 1 from Phillies to Barr; 1 from Phillies to Gravel
IOWA - 2 from Phillies to Barr; 1 from Phillies to Gravel
KANSAS - 1 from Root to Barr
MARYLAND - 1 from Ruwart to Gravel
MASSACHUSETTS - 4 from Phillies to Ruwart, 1 from Phillies to Root, 1 from Phillies to NOTA
MICHIGAN - 1 from Ruwart to Barr
MINNESOTA - 1 from Phillies to Gravel, 1 from Root to Barr
MISSISSIPPI - 1 from Ruwart to Barr
MISSOURI - 2 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart
MONTANA - 1 from Phillies to Root
NEW HAMPSHIRE - 2 from Phillies to Root, 1 from Phillies to Ruwart
NEW MEXICO - 1 from Phillies to Root, 1 from Ruwart to NOTA
NEW YORK - 1 from Gravel to Root, 1 from Gravel to Ruwart
OREGON - 1 from Phillies to Barr, 1 from Phillies to Gravel
PENNSYLVANIA - 1 from Phillies to Root, 2 from Gravel to Barr
RHODE ISLAND - 2 from Phillies to Barr
SOUTH CAROLINA - 1 from Gravel to Barr
TENNESSEE - 1 from Root to Barr
TEXAS - 1 from Gravel to Barr
UTAH - 1 from Barr to Root
VIRGINIA - 1 from Gravel to Barr
WASHINGTON - 2 from Phillies to Ruwart
WYOMING - 1 from Gravel to Root
TOTALS
PHILLIES - 13 to Ruwart, 8 to Root, 5 to Gravel, 4 to Barr, 1 NOTA (presumably Phillies himself, a member of the Mass. delegation)
In addition to gaining 5 from Phillies, Gravel gained 2 from Ruwart and one each from Barr and Root, mostly from unifying the Connecticut delegation; unfortunately he lost 5 to Barr, 4 to Root and 3 to Ruwart. Root lost 6 to Barr, 2 to Ruwart and 1 to Gravel (but gaining 4 from Gravel and 8 from Phillies). Ruwart had 2 defect to Barr, who lost 1 back to Ruwart.
Confused yet? Don't worry, it should get simpler soon...
Ballot 5 (Gravel out):
ALABAMA - 1 Gravel not voting
ARIZONA - 1 from Gravel to Barr
CALIFORNIA - 1 from Root to Barr, 1 from Gravel to Barr, 2 from Gravel to Ruwart, 2 from Gravel not voting
COLORADO - 2 from Gravel to Root, 1 from Barr to Root
CONNECTICUT - 5 from Gravel to Root
FLORIDA - 1 from Gravel to Root, 1 from Ruwart (to Barr to NV to Ruwart) to Barr
IDAHO - 1 Gravel not voting, 1 from Ruwart to Barr
ILLINOIS - 1 from Gravel to Barr, 1 from Gravel to Root
INDIANA - 4 from Gravel to Ruwart, 3 from Gravel to Root, 1 Gravel not voting
IOWA - 2 from Gravel to Barr
LOUISIANA - 1 from Gravel to Root, 2 from Gravel to NOTA
MICHIGAN - 2 from Gravel to Ruwart
MINNESOTA - 1 from Gravel to Barr, 1 from Root to Barr
MISSOURI - 2 from Ruwart to Root, 1 from Gravel to Barr
MONTANA - 1 from Root to Ruwart
NEBRASKA - 1 Barr not voted
NEVADA - 6 from Gravel to Ruwart
NEW HAMPSHIRE - 2 from Root to Ruwart
NEW MEXICO - 1 NOTA to Root
NEW YORK - 1 from Gravel to Barr, 1 from Gravel to Root, 1 Gravel not voted
NORTH DAKOTA - 1 from Gravel to Ruwart
OKLAHOMA - 2 from Root to Barr
OREGON - 1 from Gravel to Barr, 6 from Gravel to Ruwart
PENNSYLVANIA - 1 from Gravel to Root, 1 from Gravel to Ruwart, 3 from Gravel to NOTA, 1 Gravel not voted
SOUTH CAROLINA - 2 from Gravel to Barr, 1 from Gravel to Root
TEXAS - 3 from Gravel to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart
VIRGINIA - 1 from Gravel to Root
WASHINGTON - 3 from Gravel to Ruwart
WEST VIRGINIA - 1 from Gravel to Ruwart
TOTALS
GRAVEL - 24 to Ruwart, 18 to Root, 14 to Barr, 11 to NOTA/no vote
(Note: the first serious move of a candidate's supporters to opt out or reject everyone.)
Root lost four to Barr and five to Ruwart in some states, but picked one back from each in others. Two Ruwart voters (including what looks like a really indecisive Florida delegate) flipped to Barr.
Finally, with Root out, the last ballot:
ALABAMA - 1 not voted (formerly Gravel) to Ruwart
ALASKA - 2 from Root to Barr
ARIZONA - 1 from Root to Barr
CALIFORNIA - 35 from Root to Barr, 6 from Root to Ruwart
COLORADO - 10 from Root to Ruwart, 6 from Root to NOTA
CONNECTICUT - 1 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart, 3 from Root to NOTA
DELAWARE - 1 from Root to Barr
FLORIDA - 1 from Root to Barr, 1 from Barr (back, again) to Ruwart
IDAHO - 2 from Root to Ruwart, 1 from Root to NOTA
ILLINOIS - 3 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart
INDIANA - 4 Root to Barr, 5 Root to Ruwart, 1 not voting (Gravel) to Ruwart
IOWA - 1 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart
KANSAS - 2 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart
KENTUCKY - 3 from Root to Barr
LOUISIANA - 3 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to NOTA
MAINE - 1 from Root to Barr
MARYLAND - 1 from Root to Barr
MASSACHUSETTS - 1 from Root to Ruwart, 1 from NOTA to Ruwart
MICHIGAN - 3 from Root to Barr, 2 from Root to Ruwart, 1 from Root to NOTA
MINNESOTA - 1 from Barr to Ruwart
MISSOURI - 4 from Root to Barr, 2 from Root to Ruwart
MONTANA - 1 from Root to Barr
NEBRASKA - 1 not voting to NOTA
NEW HAMPSHIRE - 1 from Root to Barr, 1 Root not voted
NEW JERSEY - 11 from Root to Barr
NEW MEXICO - 2 from Root to Barr, 3 from Root to NOTA
NEW YORK - 6 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart
OHIO - 5 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart, 1 from Root to NOTA
OREGON - 1 Root not voted
PENNSYLVANIA - 3 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to Ruwart, 1 from NOTA to Ruwart
SOUTH CAROLINA - 1 from Root to Barr, 1 Root not voted
SOUTH DAKOTA - 3 from Root to Barr
TENNESSEE - 1 from Root to Barr
TEXAS - 5 from Root to Ruwart
UTAH - 1 from Root to Barr
VIRGINIA - 1 from Root to Barr, 1 from Root to NOTA
WASHINGTON - 1 from Root to Barr
WYOMING - 1 from Ruwart to NOTA
TOTALS
ROOT - 103 to Barr, 33 to Ruwart
Also, two former Gravel voters switch to Ruwart, and two Barr voters went to Ruwart.
So, what was the total swing in support, from beginning to end?
SMITH - 5 to Ruwart, 1 to Root
JINGOZIAN- 10 to Root, 6 to Barr, 2 to Gravel, 2 to Kubby, 1 to Barr, 1 to Phillies, 1 dropped out
KUBBY - 23 to Ruwart, 9 to Root, 6 to Barr, 5 to Gravel, 1 to Phillies
PHILLIES - 17 to Ruwart, 13 to Root, 9 to Barr, 7 to Gravel
GRAVEL - 29 to Ruwart, 25 to Barr, 19 to Root
ROOT - 126 to Barr, 39 to Ruwart
RUWART - 4 to Barr
So, conclusions?
(1) We knew Georgia was vital for Barr- 33 for Barr, 2 for Ruwart on every ballot. Now we have to add in California. Take away those two states, and Ruwart would have won the nomination.
(2) There may or may not be a direct connection, but the number of delegates who voted for someone else before voting for Root is about the same as the number of former Root voters who voted for Ruwart and NOTA combined. My view is that virtually all of the first-ballot Root voters ended up going over to Barr and staying there over the course of the voting. Someone with more time on their hands can feel free to take the above guesses and verify or refute that.
(3) The only two candidates with no significant defection problems were the two frontrunners- Barr and Ruwart. Many of the other candidates' early supporters began looking for second choices as soon as it became clear their first choice wasn't going to win- even if their man wasn't out yet. (Man- because Christine Smith was the first out, and Ruwart the last.) And of the two frontrunners, Barr suffered four defections to Ruwart's eight (or, if my guess about there being one really indecisive Florida delegate is right, two Barr defections to Ruwart's six.)
(4) I badly misjudged Phillies supporters- not knowing just how strongly the Phillies people resented Barr's past record of persecuting pagans. They ended up supporting Ruwart over Barr by quite a bit. Likewise, Gravel's decision not to endorse made my prediction that his people would go for Barr very wrong. I was only right about Kubby's group following him to Ruwart and Root's following him to Barr.
But that's academic now, in more ways than one- I'm voting Obama in November, barring a major stumble on his part, and Barr is the 2008 LP nominee no matter which particular people voted for whoever else. It just has interest to me as a horse race- in the same way Dems and Repubs fascinate me in most of their races.
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