Wednesday, April 2, 2008

(Almost) Official: Obama Wins Texas

First, a quick note: Clinton compared herself yesterday, in a speech in Philadelphia, to Rocky Balboa. Perhaps she's forgotten that, in the original movie, Rocky lost...

Anyway, the results from the second round of Texas caucusing/conventions are in. Obama's percentage has shifted a little in his favor. Burnt Orange Report predicts a 37-30 split in favor of Obama; MSNBC calculates a 38-29 split. I favor MSNBC, for the moment, and I've made some adjustments in my totals.

(And happier for me- remember, I didn't get to be a delegate to the second level because my voting box went 2-0 Clinton... but my county, overall, only favored Clinton 9-7.)

What's more, Mississippi has reported its final vote totals for its primary. In that report, Obama gets one more delegate (and Clinton one less) than previously estimated.

A slew of new polls are out for Pennsylvania:

Rasmussen: Clinton 47%, Obama 42% (Clinton down 5% in past week)
Survey USA: Clinton 53%, Obama 41% (Clinton down 2%, Obama up 5% in past three weeks)
Quinnipiac: Clinton 50%, Obama 41% (Clinton down 3% in past three weeks)
PPP: Obama 45%, Clinton 43% (28-point swing from two weeks ago)

Ignoring the actual results (especially that last one, which is downright impossible to believe), we get a definite trend not so much for Obama as against Clinton.

I still don't think Obama will win Pennsylvania- unless Clinton's "Bosnian Sniper" lie continues to roll against her- but my prediction that Clinton only nets eight delegates out of that state looks to be firming up quite a bit.

Other polls out show Clinton slamming Obama in Kentucky (no surprise) and Obama slamming Clinton in North Carolina (also no surprise). No change in my personal predictions there. Survey USA, on the other hand, shows Clinton up by nine points in Indiana, which is surprising- since the only prior reputable poll showed Obama up nearly 2-1 in that state. That, of course, was during Obama's 12-contest winning streak.

I still predict that Clinton wins Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky; that Puerto Rico is unpredictable; and Obama wins all other contests, including Indiana. The net result will still be close to an even split of remaining pledged delegates. After adjusting the Texas delegate count, I show the magic superdelegate number (the number of superdelegates Obama needs to end Clinton's ability to use them to overturn his delegate lead) at 106.

Slate only gives Hillary a 10% chance to get the nomination at this point. Rasmussen's political markets show Hillary with 15.4% probability of the nomination. More and more people are beginning to realize that Pennsylvania is not the winner-take-all contest of this primary season; they're seeing, instead, that nothing short of a catastrophic Obama collapse or a truly corrupt Democratic national convention will get Clinton the nomination. They're also seeing that Clinton will do anything- lie, cheat, and steal- to win that nomination, even if it means the destruction of her own party.

(Oh, Obama: retail politics is good, but stick to basketball. Stop bowling. Please. Even I can break 100 as often as not; I'd be truly upset at bowling a 37, especially with world media filming every single gutterball.)

P. S. this was originally intended to be posted yesterday. I've made some edits and adjustments to bring it up to date... and just as I'm doing a final fact check, MSNBC announces the Democratic governor of Wyoming is coming out for Obama. Magic number now 105.

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