What Happens After Tsunami Tuesday?

We can safely presume that the Republican race will be wrapped up come Wednesday.

Let's presume, though, that the Democratic race is still wide open after the dust settles tomorrow. What comes next? Let's look at the schedule and see which way it goes.

FEB. 9

LOUISIANA (56 pledged delegates): Somewhat favors Obama. My guess: 30 delegates to Obama, 26 to Clinton.

NEBRASKA (24 pledged delegates): Plains state near Iowa and Kansas strongly favors Obama. My guess: 15 to Obama, 9 to Clinton.

VIRGIN ISLANDS (3 pledged delegates): Favors Clinton. My guess: 2 to Clinton, 1 to Obama.

WASHINGTON (78 pledged delegates): Competitive, with urban areas favoring Clinton, rural areas favoring Obama. I predict an Obama edge: 42 to Obama, 36 to Clinton.

FEB. 10

MAINE (24 pledged delegates): Favors Clinton. My guess: 16 to Clinton, 8 to Obama.

FEB. 12 (big, big day for Obama)

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (15 pledged delegates): Overwhelmingly favors Obama. My guess: 12 for Obama, 3 for Clinton.

MARYLAND (70 pledged delegates): Strongly favors Obama. My guess: 44 for Obama, 26 for Clinton.

VIRGINIA (86 pledged delegates): Somewhat favors Obama. My guess: 48 for Obama, 38 for Clinton.

FEB. 19

HAWAII (20 pledged delegates): Strongly favors Clinton. My guess: 14 for Clinton, 6 for Obama.

WISCONSIN (74 pledged delegates): Favors Obama. My guess: 44 for Obama, 30 for Clinton.

MARCH 4 (the last big weekend)

OHIO (141 pledged delegates): Favors Clinton. My guess: Clinton 85, Obama 56.

TEXAS (193 pledged delegates): Somewhat favors Clinton (dammit). My guess: Clinton 105, Obama 88.

RHODE ISLAND (21 pledged delegates): Favors Clinton. My guess: Clinton 12, Obama 9.

VERMONT (15 pledged delegates): Strongly favors Clinton. My guess: Clinton 9, Obama 6.

So, the total after Tsunami Tuesday and not counting March 4, by my rough guess, is Obama 250, Clinton 200. Counting March 4- which will be influenced by what has come before and by two weeks of very hard campaigning by both candidates- the current total is Clinton 411, Obama 409. (All guesswork, of course, since most of these states haven't had one poll in the past month.)

My read: if Obama keeps it within 200 delegates tomorrow, he can continue, but it'll be difficult. A Clinton advantage of less than 100 amounts to a tie. An outright Obama delegate win tomorrow changes the numbers down the line and gives him, I think, unstoppable momentum... which will affect those March 4 primaries and take away Clinton's final firewall.

In other words, I think if it isn't decided tonight (and it probably won't be), it won't be decided until at least well into March. It could go to April 22, the Pennsylvania primary...

... which, looking at a poll taken right around the New Hampshire primary when Clinton's polls were at their highest, shows Clinton 40, Obama 20, Edwards 11... after which the Edwards vote outside the South has swung to Obama, and Obama has picked up steam on his own...

... well, you gotta call that state for Obama, barring a collapse on his part.

So Obama can survive being a bit behind after tomorrow night... but Hillary can't.