Friday, February 1, 2008

Tsunami Tuesday Polling Delegate Estimate, Dems 2-1-2008

Minnesota finally gets around to getting a new poll, showing Clinton still leading there, but by only seven points instead of the twenty-five point margin from last September:

* MINNESOTA (caucus, 72 delegates): (Humphrey 1-30) C (40%) 39, O (33%) 33, E (12%) 0 (Swing: 10 to Obama.)

Three polls in New Jersey. Rasmussen: Clinton 49, Obama 37. Survey USA3.9: C 51, O 39. Greenberg Quinler Rosner, C 44, O 38. All show Obama closing up the gap. The survey with the smallest margin of error is Rasmussen:

* NEW JERSEY (primary, 107 delegates): (Rasmussen 1-31) C (49%) 60, O (37%) 37 (Swing: 4 to Obama.)

Obama's home state gets even stronger for him, according to Rasmussen (60-24). American Research Group shows the Illinois race much closer (51-40), but their poll has a smaller sample, so I'm sticking with Rasmussen:

* ILLINOIS (primary, 153 delegates): (Rass 1-30) C (24%) 44, O (60%) 109, E (10%) 0 (Swing: 2 to Obama.)

In Connecticut, where Rasmussen showed the two Democrats tied 40-40, USA shows Obama ahead 48-44. American Research Group shows Hillary ahead by a broader gap, 48-35. Again, ARG's sample is smaller- less than one-third the size of USA- so I go with the Survey USA numbers:

* CONNECTICUT (primary, 48 delegates): (USA 1-30) C (44%) 22, O (48%) 26 (Swing: 2 to Obama.)

USA shows Obama and Clinton tied in Alabama. Capitol Survey Research Center goes further, reversing the numbers Rasmussen showed a week ago- 44 Obama, 40 Clinton. Sticking with USA's much larger sample:

* ALABAMA (primary, 52 delegates): (USA 1-30) C (47%) 26, O (47%) 26, E (9%) 0 (Swing: 5 to Obama.)

USA also has a new New York poll out. Although Obama's gained some ground since USA's last New York poll- up eight percentage points, with Clinton down two- the actual 54-38 split is a bit wider than the Public Policy Polling survey (45-33) we quoted last:

* NEW YORK (primary, 232 delegates): (USA 1-31) C (54%) 136, O (38%) 96 (Swing: 2 to Clinton.)

A new poll for Tennessee from Crawford Johnson & Northcott shows Clinton up 36% to 31% with nearly a third of the electorate undecided or otherwise in play. The sample size is 400 voters:

* TENNESSEE (primary, 68 delegates): (Crawford Johnson Northcott 1-31) C (36%) 37, O (31%) 31 (Swing: 10 to Obama, if it holds. Rasmussen is supposed to have a poll of its own out later today, and it'll almost certainly have a larger sample size.)

Finally, the national Gallup daily tracking poll now has Obama within three points, 44-41. Gallup is cautiously speculating that Obama is gaining more support from Edwards' departure than Clinton, by better than two to one. Rasmussen's tracking poll shows a similar trend, reporting that the last two days of polling, after the Edwards dropout, show Obama behind only by two points, 44-42. Today's official Rasmussen tracking poll, however, shows Clinton up 43-37, thanks to the last day of polling while Edwards was still actively campaigning. Tomorrow will show the first tracking poll without any Edwards pre-suspension support.

UNPOLLED

* ALASKA (caucus, 13 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 7, O 8, E 0
* AMERICAN SAMOA (primary, 3 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 2, O 1, E 0
* Dems ABROAD (primary, 7 delegates): (nat'l polls used) (Gallup 1-29-31) C (44%) 4, O (41%) 3
* KANSAS (caucus, 32 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 13, O 19, E 0
* NORTH DAKOTA (caucus, 13 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 6, O 7, E 0

OLD POLLS

* DELAWARE (primary, 15 delegates): (PublicMind 10-6-07) C (41%) 11, O (17%) 4, E (7%) 0
* IDAHO (caucus, 18 delegates): (Greg Smith 7-12-2007) C (31%) 25, 9 (33%) 9, E (15%) 0
* NEW MEXICO (caucus, 26 delegates): (??? 9/5/2007) C (17%) 17, O (8%) 9, E (8%) 0
* UTAH (primary, 23 delegates): (??? 2-11-2007) C (31%) 15, O (18%) 8, E (9%) 0

JANUARY POLLS

* ARIZONA (primary, 56 delegates): (BRC 1-20-4) C (37%) 32, O (27%) 24, E (15%) 0
* ARKANSAS (primary, 35 delegates): (??? 12-14-2007) C (57%) 27, O (17%) 8, E (14%) 0
* CALIFORNIA (primary, 370 delegates): (Rass 1-29) C (43%) 192, O (40%) 176, E (9%) 0
* COLORADO (caucus, 55 delegates): (MD 1-21-3) C (32%) 27, O (34%) 28, E (17%) 0
* GEORGIA (primary, 87 delegates): (PPP 1-30) C (41%) 39, O (51%) 48
* MASSACHUSETTS (primary, 93 delegates): (Rass 1-28) C (43%) 50, O (37%) 43, E (11%) 0
* MISSOURI (primary, 72 delegates): (Rass 1-26) C (43%) 46, O (24%) 26, E (18%) 0
* OKLAHOMA (primary, 38 delegates): (Survey USA 1-27) C (44%) 27, O (19%) 11, E (27%) 0

(Rass- Rasmussen, USA- Survey USA, MD- Mason-Dixon, PPP- Public Policy Polling, WAG- Wild Ass Guess)

New count:

Clinton 892, Obama 786 on February 5. (Net swing to Obama: 27.)

(One other bit of news, which makes me sad, not Super Tuesday related: a new IVR poll in Texas shows Clinton way up over Obama here, 46% to 28%.)

(This post edited for corrections.)

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

USA Actually has Obama up 48-44 in Conn, not the other way around.

Kris Overstreet said...

Thanks for the correction: I've made the edit. Future totals will show the new poll properly. It makes, by my guesstimate, a four-delegate difference back to Obama's favor.