Tsunami Tuesday Delegate Estimate Update: 2-2-08

On the Republican side, Huckabee is losing a bit of steam. Take Missouri, Alabama and Georgia firmly out of his column and put them into McCain's. That leaves Huckabee only his home state of Arkansas, which isn't enough to continue. I'm not crunching numbers on the Republican side because this trend only emphasizes McCain's dominance come Tuesday, where he'll likely come within a hundred delegates of winning the nomination.

Now for the Democratic side, where the Obama wave has crested and a Clinton backwash is beginning. (Dammit.)


Rasmussen's new poll for New York doesn't show much significant change there- Clinton still leads far, far ahead of Obama:

* NEW YORK (primary, 232 delegates): (Rass 2-1) C (54%) 140, O (38%) 92 (Swing: 4 to Clinton.)

Survey USA shows Missouri tightened up to within their margin of error- Clinton 48%, Obama 44%. That's +5

for Clinton, +18 for Obama over the Rasmussen poll of the 26th. Rasmussen, however, shows Clinton 47%,

Obama 38%- a substantial Clinton lead. Survey USA has the larger sample size, so...

* MISSOURI (primary, 72 delegates): (USA 1-30-1) C (48%) 38, O (44%) 34 (Swing: 8 to Obama.)

Rasmussen is consistently showing Clinton stronger than Survey USA in other polls; where the most recent

Survey USA poll shows Alabama in a dead heat, the new Rasmussen poll shows her up 46-41:

* ALABAMA (primary, 52 delegates): (Ras 2-1) C (46%) 27, O (41%) 25, E (9%) 0 (Swing: 1 to

Clinton.)

And Rasmussen's Tennessee poll is out, with a sampling size a little bit larger than Crawford Johnson &

Northcott's poll of yesterday:

* TENNESSEE (primary, 68 delegates): (Rass 2-1) C (49%) 40, O (35%) 28 (Swing: 3 to Clinton.)

Finally- and I type this with deep dread and misgivings- both the Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls now show a sudden jump in Clinton's support. This may be a one-day glitch (the tracking polls are averages of the past three days of polling), but it hit them both, and it's enormous: Clinton went from 44-41 over Obama in Gallup to 47-41. This could be the debate hitting, but I think it more likely- and sad- that this is the Edwards ain't-gonna-vote-fer-no-black vote settling on Clinton. Edwards has said he won't endorse before Super Tuesday... which makes his endorsement worthless afterwards, and which helps Clinton and very badly hurts Obama.

UNPOLLED

* ALASKA (caucus, 13 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 7, O 8, E 0
* AMERICAN SAMOA (primary, 3 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 2, O 1, E 0
* Dems ABROAD (primary, 7 delegates): (nat'l polls used) (Gallup 1-29-31) C (44%) 4, O (41%) 3
* KANSAS (caucus, 32 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 13, O 19, E 0
* NORTH DAKOTA (caucus, 13 delegates): (not polled, WAG) C 6, O 7, E 0

OLD POLLS

* DELAWARE (primary, 15 delegates): (PublicMind 10-6-07) C (41%) 11, O (17%) 4, E (7%) 0
* IDAHO (caucus, 18 delegates): (Greg Smith 7-12-2007) C (31%) 25, 9 (33%) 9, E (15%) 0
* NEW MEXICO (caucus, 26 delegates): (??? 9/5/2007) C (17%) 17, O (8%) 9, E (8%) 0
* UTAH (primary, 23 delegates): (??? 2-11-2007) C (31%) 15, O (18%) 8, E (9%) 0

JANUARY POLLS

* ARIZONA (primary, 56 delegates): (BRC 1-20-4) C (37%) 32, O (27%) 24, E (15%) 0
* ARKANSAS (primary, 35 delegates): (??? 12-14-2007) C (57%) 27, O (17%) 8, E (14%) 0
* CALIFORNIA (primary, 370 delegates): (Rass 1-29) C (43%) 192, O (40%) 176, E (9%) 0
* COLORADO (caucus, 55 delegates): (MD 1-21-3) C (32%) 27, O (34%) 28, E (17%) 0
* CONNECTICUT (primary, 48 delegates): (USA 1-30) C (44%) 22, O (48%) 26
* GEORGIA (primary, 87 delegates): (PPP 1-30) C (41%) 39, O (51%) 48
* ILLINOIS (primary, 153 delegates): (Rass 1-30) C (24%) 44, O (60%) 109, E (10%) 0
* MASSACHUSETTS (primary, 93 delegates): (Rass 1-28) C (43%) 50, O (37%) 43, E (11%) 0
* MINNESOTA (caucus, 72 delegates): (Humphrey 1-30) C (40%) 39, O (33%) 33, E (12%) 0
* NEW JERSEY (primary, 107 delegates): (Rasmussen 1-31) C (49%) 60, O (37%) 37 (Swing: 4 to

Obama.)
* NEW YORK (primary, 232 delegates): (USA 1-31) C (54%) 136, O (38%) 96
* OKLAHOMA (primary, 38 delegates): (Survey USA 1-27) C (44%) 27, O (19%) 11, E (27%) 0
(Rass- Rasmussen, USA- Survey USA, MD- Mason-Dixon, PPP- Public Policy Polling, WAG- Wild Ass Guess)

New count:

Clinton 888, Obama 790 on February 5. (Swing unchanged.)

It appears, at least for today, that the Obama surge has stalled. Supporters such as myself can only hope for a major Clinton malfunction or some other good news before Tuesday...

(One other bit of news, which makes me sad, not Super Tuesday related: a new IVR poll in Texas shows

Clinton way up over Obama here, 46% to 28%.)