Friday, February 15, 2008

New Texas Polls

Not one, not two, not three... FOUR new polls came out today on the Democratic Presidential race here in Texas. is the handiest quick reference:

Public Opinion Services (Texas Credit Union League) - Clinton 49%, Obama 41%, Undecided 8%

American Research Group - Clinton 42%, Obama 48%, Undecided 7% (Note: Obama winning in this one- so naturally Obama supporters are all over it)

Insider Advantage - Clinton 48%, Obama 41%, Undecided 11%

Rasmussen - Clinton 54%, Obama 38%, Undecided 9%

Rasmussen essentially ignores independent voters; ARG is presuming that a quarter of the electorate in Texas will be independents or Republicans. There are other oddities in all the polls, and none of them stands out well.

Averaging the four polls together, and weighing them according to sample size, I get the following "poll of polls" result:

Clinton 48.44%, Obama 42.24, Undecided 8.6.

If those numbers hold up- especially since the bulk of district delegates are in heavily African-American districts in Dallas and Houston, where Obama leads- Obama stands a good chance of winning the delegate count even if he loses the popular vote.

And there's still seventeen days before the contest...

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