Sunday, February 3, 2008

CBS National Poll... very interesting. VERY interesting.

CBS news releases its own national poll showing Clinton and Obama dead tied- 41-41.

Unfortunately, when they separate out Super Tuesday states, they show Clinton with a major edge- 49-31.

Although this offers some hope for Clinton on Tuesday, to me it indicates that if Obama can get through the day at close to parity in the delegate harvest, then Clinton will be very much behind the eight ball the rest of the way. There's also something else to consider: the sample size nationwide for Democratic primary voters is under 500 people; the total sample size, for Democratic voters, Republican voters, other voters, and non-voters is about 1250 people. The poll may be pretty close to accurate nationwide, but no way on Earth is it accurate for the Tsunami Tuesday states alone.

Other interesting things: CBS agrees with Gallup that Clinton is losing her once-massive advantage among female voters. The white male vote is evenly split, and the black vote, male or female, is overwhelmingly in Obama's pocket.

The momentum's still very much behind Obama... and a commenter claims to have seen a Utah poll showing Obama winning that state. I've myself seen a New Mexico poll, although with a sample size too small for me to bother with, that shows Obama up marginally over Clinton. If you read my previous post, I'm currently calling both those states heavily for Clinton... and boy, I'll be glad to be wrong.


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